中国大陆水资源强度的收敛特征检验:基于省际面板数据的实证

发布时间：2017-12-26 21:05

本文关键词：中国大陆水资源强度的收敛特征检验:基于省际面板数据的实证　出处：《自然资源学报》2016年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章从水资源与居民生活、生产及生态环境等要素构成的复合系统视角,借鉴能源强度概念内涵界定了水资源强度、水资源相对强度概念及其内涵,并提出相应表征方法,在此基础上依据有关用水部门的面板数据对2003—2013年中国大陆地区的省际水资源强度收敛特征进行了实证检验。结果表明:1)省际居民生活用水及农业用水强度差异变化相对平稳,σ-收敛趋势不明显;工业用水强度经历了"发散—平稳—收敛"的演变趋势;生态用水强度的σ-收敛趋势波动较大,且整体收敛速度较快,省际差异迅速缩小;2)大陆80%以上的省区4个用水部门的水资源相对强度受到的正面影响是持续的,整体未受短期冲击效应影响,故不具备全局性的随机收敛特征;3)4用水部门水资源强度具备绝对β-收敛特征,收敛速度分别为3.17%(居民生活用水)、4.21%(农业用水)、1.82%(工业用水)和12.41%(生态用水);4)东部省区生态用水强度呈俱乐部收敛趋势,西部省区居民生活用水和生态用水具备俱乐部收敛特征,中部省区的4用水部门均呈俱乐部收敛趋势;5)4用水部门均存在条件β-收敛特征,其中:显著驱动居民生活用水、工业用水及生态用水强度收敛的因素分别是第三产业比重、工业废水达标率和年降水量,而显著制约三者收敛的因素则分别为进出口总额、人均国民生产总值及工业废水达标率。
[Abstract]:From the perspective of complex system from the water resources and living, production and ecological environment elements, from the connotation of energy intensity defines the concept of water resources and water resources strength, relative strength of concept and connotation, and puts forward the corresponding characterization method, on the basis of the relevant provincial water resource intensity convergence characteristics from 2003 to 2013 China in mainland China with the panel data of the water sector empirically. The results show that: 1) difference of provincial residents living water and agricultural water use intensity is relatively stable, sigma convergence trend is not obvious; the industrial water intensity experienced the evolution trend of divergence of stationary convergence "; the ecological water use intensity of the sigma convergence trend of fluctuations, and the overall convergence rate, inter provincial differences decreased rapidly in 2;), more than 80% provinces and 4 Water Department of water resources by the positive impact of relative intensity is constant, the overall impact was not affected by short-term effect, it does not have the characteristics of global stochastic convergence; 3) 4 water intensity have the absolute - convergence characteristics, the convergence rate was 3.17% (the lives of the residents water), 4.21% (agricultural water), 1.82% (industrial water) and 12.41% (4) of ecological water); the eastern provinces of ecological water use intensity of the club convergence trend, the western provinces and autonomous regions in the people living water and ecological water with the Club Department of convergence. The central provinces and 4 water sector showed a club convergence trend; 5) 4 water department are conditional beta convergence characteristics, including: significant factors driving residents living water, industrial water and ecological water use intensity of convergence are the proportion of the third industry, the industrial waste water compliance rate and annual precipitation, and factors a significant restriction of the three convergence respectively for the import and export volume, the standard rate of per capita GDP and industrial wastewater.
【作者单位】：南京大学地理与海洋科学学院;中国南海研究协同创新中心;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2013CB956503) 国家自然科学基金(41471431) 国家基础科学人才培养基金项目(J1103408)~~
【分类号】：TV213.4
【正文快照】： 在全球气候变化的大背景下,水资源短缺及水环境污染问题与区域生态保护、经济社会发展问题交相耦合,局地水资源供需矛盾日益成为制约区域可持续发展的重要因素[1]。尤其是随着城市化、工业化和农业现代化的高速推进,人类的水资源需求不断增长,因此分析不同地区或不同用水部门

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