水资源供应链中水权交易机制的演化博弈仿真研究

发布时间：2017-12-28 16:25

本文关键词：水资源供应链中水权交易机制的演化博弈仿真研究　出处：《天津大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：水危机逐渐成为全球性的问题,而应对的出发点已不再是寻找新的水源扩大水资源供给,而是对现有水资源更加合理的利用。通过水权交易机制使水资源从水资源供应链的低效环节流向高效环节,从而提升水资源供应链的整体效用被视为解决当下低效难题的可行之策。然而水权交易面临着供应链上的节点企业市场参与意愿较低的瓶颈。为了解决这一问题,本文从分析水资源供应链的特征入手构建了演化博弈模型,根据对资源不同的感知价值将节点企业细分为两个种群,原有厂商和新厂商。每个种群都有同样的策略组合,即鹰策略(H策略)和鸽策略(D策略),前者代表积极参与市场,后者代表不参与市场。相应的抽象外部影响因素为市场参与成本、定价和惩罚。模型追求的演化稳定策略(ESS,Evolutionarily Stable Strategy)是(H,H),代表着种群全部参与市场的理想情况。通过计算演化稳定策略并利用AnyLogic 7.1.1软件构建系统动力学仿真对模型结果加以验证,本文共得到了四个主要结论:(1)最小化市场参与成本和定价,但是设置比较大的惩罚可以更快的达到均衡解的稳定状态;(2)通过调整、和的值和组合可以调控演化博弈均衡解;(3)种群初始策略的选择对最终结果的影响是决定性的可以在实践中加以利用;(4)如果某个市场参与水平不令人满意但却具有稳定性,那么它很可能是鞍点,需要通过调整外部环境条件加以改善。本文的创新之处在于将水资源供应链作为研究对象提升整体效用的同时兼顾了对于整条链而言至关重要的市场培育问题的这个点。全文在综合分析水资源供应链和演化博弈理论应用场景的相似性及应用的可行性的基础上,通过建立演化博弈模型分析个体行为机制和相互之间的作用关系,得到了关于水资源供应链上市场培育问题及其解的稳定性的结论,并利用仿真试验分析验证了模型结论,具备一定的应用价值。此外,应用演化博弈理论研究水资源供应链问题是比较新的尝试,可供借鉴的研究比较少,本文为相关领域的研究提供了一个新的视角。
[Abstract]:The water crisis has gradually become a global problem. The starting point of the response is no longer looking for new sources of water, expanding the supply of water resources, but rather making more rational use of the existing water resources. Through the water right trading mechanism, the flow of water resources from the inefficient links of the water resources supply chain to the efficient links, so as to enhance the overall utility of the water resources supply chain is regarded as a feasible strategy to solve the current low efficiency problems. However, the water right transaction is facing the bottleneck of the low willingness to participate in the market of the supply chain. In order to solve this problem, this paper starts from analyzing the characteristics of water resources supply chain, and constructs an evolutionary game model. According to the different perceived value of resources, the node enterprises are divided into two groups, the original manufacturer and the new manufacturer. Each group has the same strategy combination, namely, the eagle strategy (H strategy) and the pigeon strategy (D strategy). The former represents the active participation in the market, while the latter does not participate in the market. The corresponding abstract external factors are market participation cost, pricing and punishment. The evolutionary stabilization strategy (ESS, Evolutionarily Stable Strategy) pursued by the model is (H, H), representing the ideal situation in which the population is fully involved in the market. By calculating the evolutionary stable strategy and the use of AnyLogic 7.1.1 software to build the system dynamics simulation of the model results are verified in this paper, we obtain four main conclusions: (1) to minimize the cost of market participation and pricing, but set relatively large penalties can be faster to reach a steady state equilibrium solution; (2), and by adjusting the value and combination can control the evolution of the game equilibrium solution; (3) effects of the initial strategy is decisive for the final result can be used in practice; (4) if a market participation level is not satisfactory but has stability, so it is likely to be a saddle point, need to be improved by adjusting the external environment condition. The innovation of this paper is that the water resources supply chain is taken as the research object to enhance the overall utility while taking into consideration the point of market cultivation for the whole chain. In the comprehensive analysis of water resources supply chain and evolutionary game theory application and application feasibility of similarity on the basis of the evolutionary game model analysis of the relationship between individual behavior and mechanism of each other, the stability of the water resources supply chain market problems and solutions of the conclusion, and the use of simulation analysis to verify the conclusion of model has certain application value. In addition, applying evolutionary game theory to the study of water resources supply chain is a relatively new attempt. There are few studies available for reference. This paper provides a new perspective for the research in related fields.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV213.4;F224.32

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