区域水资源“三条红线”管理绩效评价模型研究及实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-02 05:02

本文关键词：区域水资源“三条红线”管理绩效评价模型研究及实证分析　出处：《山东农业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：水是生命之源、生产之要、生态之基。水资源是地球上最为宝贵的财富,水造就了人类的文明史,推动了人类经济社会的发展。近年来,伴随全球经济社会的快速发展,世界范围内水资源匮乏凸显,水资源形势日益严峻,水资源短缺、水生态脆弱、水灾害威胁已经成为威胁人类生存发展的突出水问题。因此,重视水资源管理、促进水资源可持续利用,已经成为各国政府和国际社会的共识,各国都加大了对本国水资源的管理：逐步建立完善水资源管理的法律法规体系；推进水资源权属管理；重视生态用水,加强水资源的调度配置；国际间加快全球水资源信息化建设和水利合作,提高了水资源管理的技术水平。立足当前,着眼长远,我国根据本国的基本国情社情提出了实施最严格的水资源管理制度的要求,经过近几年的全面贯彻,持续推进,最严格水资源管理制度在我国已从最初的设想逐步走向了成熟,在我国多个省市县推广实施,明确了以“三条红线”为核心的“四项制度”作为其基本构架。但是必须注意到在微观层面,区域水资源管理责任和考核制度尚未落实,区域水资源供求矛盾突出,地区缺水严重,水资源分布与国民经济布局不相适应,水资源供需矛盾严重制约着区域经济的发展。因此,为了保障我国“三条红线”水资源管理制度落实到实处,必须建立区域最严格水资源“三条红线”管理绩效评价模型和采用与之相适应的数学方法,进行区域“三条红线”水资源管理能力评价,分析不同区域内水资源管理的实际情况和存在的问题并因地制宜地提出解决方案。只有实现了区域最严格水资源管理制度的实施,才能进一步推进我国水资源管理的严格化、精细化和系统化研究,进一步实现水资源的可持续利用本文在深入探讨了最严格水资源管理的制度含义和体系构成的基础上,结合区域水资源管理自身的特点,通过搜集大量的统计资料,综合考虑用水总量、用水效率和水功能区限制纳污“三条红线”的内涵,根据指标体系构建的原则,构建了区域水资源管理“三条红线”评价指标体系。其次,在仔细研究了灰色关联分析法和TOPSIS分析法,对两者的使用范围和优缺点做了比较后,最终确定了构建基于灰色关联分析的改进TOPSIS模型作为对区域水资源管理能力进行评价的数学模型；随后详细阐述了该模型的基本思想、具体求解步骤和计算方法,明晰了如何根据评价结果对水资源管理能力进行评价。最后,以山东省济南市为实例,应用区域水资源管理“三条红线”评价指标体系和基于灰色关联分析的改进TOPSIS模型对济南市近年来的水资源管理能力进行评价,将主观因素和客观数据相结合,最终采用TOPSIS模型中的关联相对贴近度对历年来济南的水资源管理能力进行评价,评价过程建立在客观数据的基础上,评价结果与近年来济南市水资源管理的实际情况基本相吻,说明该评价指标体系和数学评价模型得到了很好的衔接,具有针对性和有效性。
[Abstract]:Water is the Source of Life, production to ecological base. Water resources are the valuable wealth of the earth on the water, creating a history of human civilization, to promote the development of human society. In recent years, with the rapid development of the global economy and society, highlighting the world's water shortage, water resources situation is increasingly grim the shortage of water resources, water, ecological fragility, water hazard has become a prominent problem of water threat to human survival and development. Therefore, pay attention to the management of water resources, sustainable utilization of water resources has become the consensus of the international community and governments, governments are increasing in their domestic water resources management, and gradually establish and improve the management of water resources the system of laws and regulations; to promote water rights management; pay attention to the ecological water, strengthen the scheduling of water resources allocation; accelerate the global water resources informatization construction and water conservancy international cooperation, improve the water resources The technical level of management.
Based on the current and long-term perspective, China put forward the implementation of the most stringent water management system requirements according to their own basic social conditions, through the comprehensive implementation, in recent years the most strict water resources management system in our country from the original vision gradually mature, implementation in China provincial cities and counties to promotion, to clear the "three line" as the core of the "four system" as its basic framework. It must be noticed in the micro level, the regional water resources management responsibility and evaluation system has not been implemented, the regional water resources supply and demand contradiction, serious water shortage area, water resources distribution and layout of national economy do not adapt, the contradiction between water supply and demand is seriously restricting the development of regional economy. Therefore, in order to safeguard our country "three line" water resources management system to implement, must establish the strict regional water resources "three red Line management performance evaluation model and the mathematical method corresponding to the evaluation of regional "three line" water resources management ability, analysis of the actual situation in different regions of the water resources management and the existing problems and proposes solutions. Only to achieve the implementation of the most stringent water resources management system, in order to further promote the strict water resources management in China, the research of refinement and system, further realize the sustainable utilization of water resources
Based on the in-depth study of the system constitute the basis of the meaning and system of the most strict water resources management, combined with the characteristics of regional water resources management itself, by collecting a large amount of statistical data, the total amount of water into consideration, water use efficiency and water pollutant limits the function and connotation of the "three line", according to the principle of index system the construction of regional water resource management, "three line" evaluation index system.
Secondly, in the careful study of the grey correlation analysis method and TOPSIS analysis method, the use of both advantages and disadvantages, and ultimately determine the construction of improved TOPSIS model of grey relational analysis as a mathematical model to evaluate the regional water resources management based on competence; then elaborates the basic idea of the model, specific the solving steps and calculation method, clarifies how to according to the evaluation results to evaluate the water resources management.
Finally, taking Shandong city of Ji'nan Province as an example, the application of regional water resources management evaluation index system of "three line" and the management of water resources capacity of Ji'nan city in recent years to improve the TOPSIS model based on grey relational analysis evaluation, the combination of subjective and objective data, the TOPSIS model of relative closeness the management of water resources capacity of Ji'nan over the years to evaluate the evaluation process based on objective data, the assessment results and in recent years the actual situation of Ji'nan city water resources management of the basic kiss, the evaluation index system and mathematical evaluation model has very good convergence, targeted and effective.

【学位授予单位】：山东农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4

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