洞庭湖流域水资源演变归因分析

发布时间：2018-02-10 03:24

本文关键词： 洞庭湖流域水资源演变气候变化水热耦合平衡 GBHM模型　出处：《清华大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：气候变化已公认为全球最重要的环境问题之一，日益加剧的人类活动对流域水循环也产生了巨大的影响，以水资源问题（洪涝灾害、干旱灾害）突出和复杂的洞庭湖流域为对象，研究水资源演变的特征和规律，定量评价气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响，对水资源可持续利用和维持洞庭湖生态功能等具有重要意义。采用线性倾向估计方法、滑动平均法、去趋势预置白MK趋势检验等方法，分析了洞庭湖流域水文气象要素的变化特征。1960-2010年间，城陵矶径流量减少和水位上升，径流量减少主要由长江三口分流量的减少所导致。比较1993-2002年与2003-2010年，城陵矶径流量减少了599.2亿m3，其中四水减少350.4亿m3，占58.4%；城陵矶水位在两时段内下降0.53m，通过构建线性回归模型进行归因分析得出，城陵矶径流量减少、长江干流水位下降的影响量分别为0.26m、0.32m，，考虑三口径流量减少，长江干流水文特征变化对城陵矶水位的影响比例达65%。采用有序聚类法和MK突变检验方法，并结合流域重要时间节点，将洞庭湖四水流域径流序列划分为三个阶段：1979-1988、1989-2002、2003-2010。基于水热耦合平衡关系，推导了径流对气候要素的敏感性系数，并探究了如何区分人类活动对径流的影响，继而定量分析了气候变化和人类活动对洞庭湖四水径流的影响，结果表明：I、II阶段中径流量增加的气候变化影响比例分别为120.8%、96.1%、97.8%、453.5%，人类活动影响比例分别为-24.5%、2.2%、0.7%、-355.5%，II、III阶段中径流量减少的气候变化影响比例分别为206.0%、110.7%、112.6%、100.9%，人类活动影响比例分别为-95.3%、-6.9%、-9.8%、0.6%。论文在洞庭湖四水流域构建了GBHM分布式水文模型，通过模拟不同方案的径流过程，定量评价了气候变化对四水径流的影响，结果表明：I、II阶段中气候变化的影响比例分别为79.6%、69.3%、63.7%、447.2%，II、III阶段中气候变化的影响的影响比例为154.3%、89.7%、107.9%、124.2%。两种评价方法均表明气候变化是导致四水流域径流变化的主导因素，其中又以降雨量的变化起主要作用。人类活动在大部分时期造成径流量增加，是流域中城镇化建设、水土流失、水土保持、兴修水库、人工耗水等因素综合作用的结果。
[Abstract]:Climate change has been recognized as one of the most important environmental problems in the world, and increasing human activities have had a significant impact on the watershed water cycle, with regard to water resources (flood and waterlogging disasters). Drought disasters) the prominent and complex Dongting Lake basin is the object of study on the characteristics and laws of water resources evolution, and quantitative evaluation of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff, It is of great significance for the sustainable utilization of water resources and the maintenance of ecological function of Dongting Lake. By means of linear tendency estimation method, moving average method and tendency preset MK trend test method, the variation characteristics of hydrometeorological elements in Dongting Lake basin are analyzed. During the period 1960-2010, the runoff and water level of Chenglingji are decreased and the water level is rising. The decrease in runoff is mainly caused by the decrease in the discharge of the Yangtze River's three ports. A comparison between 1993-2002 and 2003-2010, The runoff of Chenglingji decreased by 59.92 billion m3, in which the water level of Chenglingji decreased by 35.04 billion m3, accounting for 58.4 m, and the water level of Chenglingji decreased by 0.53 m during the two periods. The result of attribution analysis based on the linear regression model showed that the runoff of Chenglingji decreased. The water level of the main stream of the Yangtze River is reduced by 0.26mand 0.32m. considering the decrease of the runoff of the three channels, the influence ratio of the change of the hydrological characteristics of the Yangtze River trunk to the water level of Chenglingji reaches 65%. By using the method of ordered clustering and MK mutation test, and combining with the important time nodes of the watershed, the runoff sequence of the Sishui watershed of Dongting Lake is divided into three stages: 1 / 1979-1988-1989-2002n / 2003-2010. Based on the relationship between water and heat, the sensitivity coefficient of runoff to climate factors is derived, and how to distinguish the impacts of human activities on runoff is discussed. Then, the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in Dongting Lake are quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that the proportion of climate change effect of runoff increase in stage II was 120.80.96. 1 and 97.8and 453.5. the proportion of human activity influence was -24.5and 2.20.7and 2.20.7and -355.50.The proportion of climate change effect of runoff reduction in stage III was 206.0110.70.112.6100.9, and the proportion of human activity influence was -95.33-6.9n- 9.80.0.The proportion of human activity influence was -95.3- 6.9n- 9.80.0.The proportion of climate change effect was -95.33-6.9ng-9.80.95. In this paper, GBHM distributed hydrological model is constructed in the Sishui basin of Dongting Lake. By simulating the runoff process of different schemes, the effects of climate change on the runoff of four water are quantitatively evaluated. The results show that the proportion of the effects of climate change in stage II is 79.6and 69.3and 63.7and 447.2respectively. The proportion of the effects of climate change in stage III is 154.389.70.107.9and 124.2. 2. Both evaluation methods show that climate change is the leading factor leading to runoff change in Sishui watershed, and the change of rainfall plays a major role. Human activities cause runoff increase in most of the period, which is the construction of urbanization in the basin. Soil erosion, soil and water conservation, construction of reservoir, artificial water consumption and other factors.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4

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