西、北、东江水资源特性分析

发布时间：2018-03-13 14:24

本文选题：水资源特性　切入点：年际变化　出处：《中国农村水利水电》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：以西、北、东江控制性水文站1959-2010年共52年的实测水文资料为基础,运用Mann-Kendall法、集中程度等方法分析了西、北、东江的水资源特性。结果表明:(1)西、北、东江径流量有明显的丰枯变化,长系列呈下降趋势,西、北、东江径流量不同年代年平均径流量有明显的差异;(2)西江径流量在1968-1987年和1997-2003年具有上升趋势,其他时段具有下降趋势;北江径流量在1996-2008年具有上升趋势,在1963-1974年和1986-1994年具有下降趋势;东江径流量在1976-1988年具有上升趋势,在1959-1975年和1989-1996年具有下降趋势;变化趋势都没有通过95%的置信度检验,上升或下降趋势不显著。(3)西、北、东江径流量的年内变化在不同时间段存在差异性,20世纪60年代以来,西江、北江径流量年内分配不均匀性较东江径流量年内分配不均匀性大;东江径流量年内分配具有明显均匀化趋势,东江年最小流量占年平均径流量比值有较明显增加趋势,有利于水资源的开发利用。
[Abstract]:Based on the measured hydrological data of 52 years from 1959-2010 at the control hydrological stations west, north and Dongjiang, the characteristics of water resources in the west, north and Dongjiang are analyzed by means of Mann-Kendall method and concentration degree. The results show that the water resources are in the west and north. The annual average runoff of Dongjiang River has obvious difference in different years. The runoff of Xijiang River increased in 1968-1987 and 1997-2003. In other periods, the runoff of Beijiang River increased in 1996-2008, decreased in 1963-1974 and 1986-1994, and increased in 1976-1988, and decreased in 1959-1975 and 1989-1996. The trend of change has not passed the confidence test of 95%. The upward or downward trend is not significant. The variation of runoff in the west, north and Dongjiang is different in different time periods. Since 60s of the 20th century, the variation of runoff in Xijiang is different. The inhomogeneity of runoff distribution in Beijiang River is greater than that in Dongjiang River, and the distribution of runoff in Dongjiang River has an obvious trend of homogenization, and the ratio of minimum annual runoff to annual average runoff of Dongjiang River has an obvious increasing trend. It is beneficial to the development and utilization of water resources.
【作者单位】：中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司;水利部珠江水利委员会水生态工程中心;河海大学水文水资源学院;
【基金】：水利部公益性行业科研专项(201401013) 国家自然科学基金(51210013,51479216) 国家科技支撑计划(2012BAC21B0103)
【分类号】：P333;TV213.4

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