基于系统熵值分析的水资源复合系统承载力可变模糊综合研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 09:11

  本文选题：水资源承载力　切入点：叶尔羌河流域　出处：《中国农村水利水电》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：水资源的承载能力是其所在区域内整个社会经济-水资源-生态环境复合系统功能的宏观体现。通过计算系统有序度熵值,评测调控各子系统发展协同程度,并利用可变模糊综合评价方法对水资源复合系统的调控效果作出评价,旨在加强各子系统联合效应,提高流域水资源承载水平。将构建的水资源承载力调控评价模型应用于叶尔羌河流域,经评测,2013年水资源承载力评分为0.51~0.73分,此时流域各子系统发展严重失衡,照此趋势发展,2020年评分为0.36~0.60,分值下降,承载力降低;经过系统熵值分析调控后分值维持在0.69~0.88,承载力水平明显提高。结果表明,该模型可以科学的模拟优化各子系统发展趋势,提高水资源复合系统承载水平,有利于流域可持续发展。
[Abstract]:The carrying capacity of water resources is the macro embodiment of the function of the whole socio-economic-water resources-ecological environment complex system in its region. By calculating the entropy of system order degree, the degree of coordination of the development of various subsystems of regulation and control is evaluated. The variable fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the control effect of the water resources composite system in order to strengthen the joint effect of each subsystem. The evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity was applied to the Yerqiang River basin. The water resources carrying capacity score in 2013 was 0.51-0.73 points, and the development of each subsystem in the basin was seriously out of balance. According to this trend, the score in 2020 is 0.36 ~ 0.60, the score decreases and the bearing capacity decreases, and the score is maintained at 0.69 ~ 0.88 after the system entropy analysis. The result shows that the model can be used to simulate and optimize the development trend of various subsystems scientifically. Improving the bearing capacity of water resources composite system is beneficial to the sustainable development of watershed.
【作者单位】： 河海大学水文水资源学院;石河子大学;新疆塔里木河流域管理局;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41371052,U1203282) 水利部公益性行业专项(201501059) 江苏省“青蓝”工程 江苏省高校优秀中青年教师和校长境外研修项目
【分类号】：TV213.4
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本文编号：1647993