干旱区绿洲城市发展与水资源需求预警分析——以乌鲁木齐市为例

发布时间：2018-03-31 03:15

本文选题：城市发展　切入点：水资源潜力　出处：《资源科学》2014年06期

【摘要】：基于乌鲁木齐市城市发展与水资源开发利用历史数据,采用系统动力学方法,构建干旱区绿洲城市发展与水资源需求预警系统仿真模型,并对乌鲁木齐市城市发展的水资源需求进行多情景模拟。模拟结果显示:①现有水资源条件难以满足城市发展的需要,各情景下水资源对城市发展系统均存在较强约束,采用调水与节水方案,乌鲁木齐市中、高速发展情景下到2030年将分别存在5.17亿m3、30.15亿m3的水资源缺口;②节水方案对水资源开发利用潜力提高的效果远大于调水的效果,社会经济发展越快,节水带来的效果越明显;③适度增强城市人口和产业的集聚与规模效应,降低用水定额,提高水资源利用效率,是提高水资源开发利用潜力最有效的途径;④通过跨流域调水提高区域的供水能力,有助于减弱水资源系统对城市发展系统的约束作用。
[Abstract]:Based on the historical data of urban development and water resources development and utilization in Urumqi, the simulation model of early warning system for urban development and water resource demand in arid region is constructed by using system dynamics method.The water resource demand of Urumqi city development is simulated in multi-scenario.The simulation results show that the existing water resources condition of 1 / 1 is difficult to meet the needs of urban development, and that water resources have strong constraints on urban development systems under various scenarios. Water transfer and water saving schemes are adopted in Urumqi.In the high speed development scenario, there will be 517 million m3, 3.015 billion m3 water resource gap and 3.015 billion m3 water saving scheme to increase the potential of water resources development and utilization. The faster the social and economic development is, the more obvious the water saving effect will be.(3) it is the most effective way to increase the potential of water resources development and utilization to increase the concentration and scale effect of urban population and industry, to reduce the water use quota and to improve the efficiency of water resources utilization.It is helpful to weaken the restriction of water resources system on urban development system.
【作者单位】：四川农业大学经济管理学院四川省农村发展研究中心;中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所;四川省宜宾市城乡规划建设地理信息中心;河南理工大学测绘与国土信息工程学院;
【基金】：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划(编号:2012BAC20B09) 中国科学院“西部之光”人才培养计划(编号:RCPY201003) 四川省农村发展研究中心项目(编号:CR1309) 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(编号:13YJCZH140)
【分类号】：F299.2;TV213.4

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