基于水土资源耦合的水资源短缺风险评价及优化

发布时间：2018-05-20 21:06

本文选题：水资源 + 因素分解　；参考：《农业工程学报》2017年12期

【摘要】：黑龙江省水资源系统的平衡对保障区域工农业发展至关重要。由于粮食主产区发展过程中水资源存在许多不确定性因素,在追求经济增长的同时,黑龙江省水资源也存在着较大的风险。该文以黑龙江省及其13个地级市为研究区域,基于熵权物元模型评价水资源短缺风险,利用平均迪氏分解法(logarithmic mean Divisia index,LMDI)分析影响用水量变化的驱动因素,通过耦合协调模型和GIS软件分析影响水资源短缺的因素及其区域差异性,采用经济与资源双重导向的优化路径,解决水资源短缺风险问题。结果表明,2014年黑龙江省整体水资源短缺处于III级-中等风险,水土资源处于拮抗耦合中度协调级别且土地资源发展略微滞后;鹤岗、双鸭山、大庆和佳木斯水资源短缺为V级,其中大庆市水资源发展明显滞后。随着经济社会的持续发展,应结合区域资源禀赋和风险特征,制定合理的水资源开发利用方案。
[Abstract]:The balance of water resources system in Heilongjiang Province is very important to ensure the development of regional industry and agriculture. Because there are many uncertain factors in the development of main grain producing areas, the water resources in Heilongjiang Province also have great risks while pursuing economic growth. In this paper, based on entropy weight matter-element model, the risk of water shortage is evaluated in Heilongjiang Province and 13 prefecture-level cities. The driving factors of water consumption change are analyzed by using logarithmic mean Divisia indexLMDI. By using the coupled coordination model and GIS software, the factors affecting water resources shortage and their regional differences are analyzed, and the problem of water resources shortage risk is solved by using the economic and resource oriented optimization path. The results showed that the overall water shortage in Heilongjiang Province in 2014 was at the III level-medium risk, the soil and water resources were in the antagonistic coupling medium coordination level and the land resources development was lagging slightly, while the water resources shortage in Hegang, Shuangyashan, Daqing and Jiamusi was V grade. The development of water resources in Daqing obviously lags behind. With the sustainable development of economy and society, rational water resources exploitation and utilization scheme should be formulated in combination with regional resource endowment and risk characteristics.
【作者单位】：东北农业大学水利与土木工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(51679040;51209038) 黑龙江省自然科学基金(面上项目)(E2016004) 黑龙江省博士后资助(LBH-Z13049) 东北农业大学“青年才俊”项目(14QC47)
【分类号】：TV213.4

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