塔里木河流域水资源系统演化驱动力与风险分析

发布时间：2018-06-23 03:37

本文选题：水文学 + COPULA联合分布模型　；参考：《水力发电学报》2014年01期

【摘要】：西北内陆河流域水资源受多种水源补给作用,水资源系统自演化规律复杂,对气候变化十分敏感。由于所处地理位置特殊,水资源系统具有独特的演化过程,并表现出较强的非平稳性、脆弱性。多重驱动力综合作用,增加了塔河流域水资源管理的风险和不确定性。本文以塔里木河流域三条源流主要出山口控制水文站、流域气象站1962-2007年共计46年水文、气象资料,2000-2011年积雪覆盖资料为研究基础,建立气象、水文变量间的多元COPULA联合分布模型。依据相依结构变点检测与尾部相关度结果,分析不同时期水资源系统演化驱动力及其相依测度变化;分析主要支流天然径流的风险遭遇概率,进一步探讨流域水资源演化的时空变化,为区域水资源管理提供可靠基础。
[Abstract]:The water resources in the inland river basin of northwest China are recharged by many kinds of water sources. The self-evolution law of water resources system is complex and sensitive to climate change. Because of its special geographical location, water resources system has a unique evolution process, and shows strong non-stationary and fragile. Multiple driving forces increase the risk and uncertainty of water resources management in Tahe River Basin. In this paper, based on the hydrological data from 1962-2007 and snow cover data from 2000 to 2011, a multivariate COPULA model for the distribution of meteorological and hydrological variables is established based on the three main sources and streams of the Tarim River Basin, which are controlled by hydrological stations at the mountain pass, and the hydrological stations in the basin from 1962 to 2007, and the snow cover data from 2000 to 2011 are taken as the basis of the study. According to the change point detection of dependent structure and the result of tail correlation, the driving force of water resources system evolution and its dependent measure change in different periods are analyzed, and the risk encounter probability of natural runoff of main tributaries is analyzed. The temporal and spatial changes of watershed water resources evolution are further discussed to provide a reliable basis for regional water resources management.
【作者单位】：郑州大学水利与环境学院;华北水利水电大学;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(51279183和51079132) 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助课题(20094101110002)
【分类号】：TV213

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