粮食安全视角下的水资源“农转非”评价与监管研究

发布时间：2018-07-01 11:09

本文选题：水资源“农转非” + 要素替代　；参考：《山东农业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：水资源“农转非”实际上是水资源从农业部门向非农业部门的有偿水权转让，这种转变在追求提高水资源利用效率的同时，还应该保证不损害正常的农业生产活动，保证正常的农业灌溉，坚持“只转让余水，不影响农业灌溉”的原则。如若长期疏于管理，大量的水资源“农转非”必将造成农业灌溉用水的短缺，影响农业生产，威胁我国的粮食安全（美国早期的水资源农转非就曾出现过这种情况）。本研究正是从这一角度出发，选择水资源“农转非”的评价指标，严格限定水资源“农转非”的数量，坚决不能超过农业“节余水量”，侵占农田灌溉基本需要。只有确定了水资源“农转非”的底线，才能既满足工业用水的需求，又不对农业生产造成威胁，为保障粮食安全提供基础条件。论文的撰写就是沿着“要素替代理论设想——评价指标选择——指标的应用（评价历史进程）——历史结果机理分析——提出对策建议”这一主线来写的。主要研究结论有：（1）要素替代理论及评价监管理论设想。水资源“农转非”的过程实际上是一个要素替代过程——其他资源追加投入将水资源从农业生产中替代出来，应该保证“农转非”之后的水量能够满足农作物生长需要，正常的粮食生产过程不能受到水量限制的影响。本文提出对水资源“农转非”进行监控管理的一些设想：先有资源的追加后有水资源“农转非”；替代效率边际递减，资源追加的投入增多；水资源“农转非”的速度不能超过资源的追加速度；水资源“农转非”有底线。（2）水资源“农转非”评价指标的选择。以C-D生产函数为模型，通过处理分析，加之一系列的模型统计检验、计量假设检验和经济意义检验，最终确定的替代资源组合为T7（喷灌节水面积）和T8（微灌节水面积），相应的边际技术替代系数为-0.94、-0.26，估算出以现实中的资源投入理论上能够节约出多少水资源，把现实中的数据与理论测算的进行比较，核心指标应满足Wn/Wt1。（3）粮食安全视角下的水资源“农转非”评价。通过测算，发现农业水资源超额转移了，大多数年份都是成倍的转移，尤其是2008年竟然超额转移20多倍，农业用水情况堪忧。但是我们也应该看到，每年水资源转移的数量在经过2003这个高峰期后，总体呈下降趋势；而每年的节水量在曲折反复中也是上升态势，二者之间的比值也经历了一番跌宕起伏，基本回落到初始水平，前景是比较乐观。但是我们仍然需要投入更多的替代资源去增加节水量，从而保证水资源合理有序的向工业部门转移，保证我国工农的平稳健康的发展。（4）对以上历史结果进行基本机理分析，发现原因有以下几点：市场机制不健全，政府干预过多，出现“寻租”、行政“平调”等行为；存在转移的程序不规范，转移过程中历史数据记载的缺失、监督控制力度不够，，过度转移的处罚没有明确的规定等监控管理漏洞；农业部门初始水权界定不清，其他部门挤占、挪用现象频发；农业节水投入不足，农户节水意识不高。（5）粮食安全视角下的水资源“农转非”监管对策。开展水资源“农转非”历史监测和未来预测研究，对我国水资源“农转非”的历史情况和发展趋势有一个总体判断；完善相关法律法规，明确初始水权，加强水权交易的法制建设；引入市场机制规范水权交易市场，完善水权交易市场的三个层次，减少政府干预；推广农业节水技术，增加农业节水设施投入，激励农户树立节水观念，采取节水措施；加强水资源“农转非”过程的管理，建立监控管理信息平台，严格控制转移数量、规范转移程序；建立水资源监控预警机制，严防各种隐患的发生。
[Abstract]:Water resources " agriculture turning non " is actually the transfer of water resources from the agricultural sector to the non - agricultural sector .

The writing of the paper is written along the main line of the application ( evaluation history process ) _ historical results mechanism analysis _ ( evaluation history process ) _ historical result mechanism analysis _ ( evaluation history process ) _ historical result mechanism analysis _ ( evaluation history process ) _ historical result mechanism analysis _ ( evaluation history process ) _ historical results mechanism analysis _ ( 1 ) .

( 1 ) The theory of factor substitution and the theory of evaluation supervision . The process of water resource " agriculture turning off " is actually an element substitution process _ other resources are put into place to replace the water resources from the agricultural production . The water quantity after " turning off agriculture " should be ensured to meet the needs of the growth of crops , and the normal grain production process cannot be influenced by the water consumption limit .
The marginal decline of substitution efficiency and the increase of resource addition ;
The speed of water resource " agriculture turn - off " cannot exceed the additional speed of resources ;
Water resources " agriculture turn non " has the bottom line .

( 2 ) The selection of the evaluation indexes of the water resources " agricultural non - agricultural " evaluation index . Using the C - D production function as the model , a series of model statistical tests , measurement hypothesis tests and economic significance tests are carried out by processing the analysis . The final alternative resource combination is T7 ( irrigation water - saving area ) and T8 ( micro - irrigation water - saving area ) , and the corresponding marginal technology substitution coefficient is - 0.94 , - 0.26 , and the comparison between the actual data and the theoretical calculation is estimated , and the core index should meet Wn / Wt1 .

( 3 ) The evaluation of water resources in the perspective of food security . By measuring and calculating , it is found that the excess transfer of agricultural water resources is a fold increase in most years , especially over 20 times in 2008 . However , we should also see that the quantity of water resources transferred per year has declined overall after the peak period of 2003 .
The annual water saving is also an upward trend in the twists and turns , and the ratio between them has experienced some ups and downs , and the prospect is relatively optimistic . However , we still need to invest more alternative resources to increase the water saving , so as to ensure the rational and orderly transfer of water resources to the industrial sector and guarantee the smooth and healthy development of workers and peasants in our country .

( 4 ) The analysis of the basic mechanism of the above historical results reveals the following points : imperfect market mechanism , excessive government intervention , " rent seeking " , administrative " leveling " and so on ;
There is not a specification of the procedures for the transfer , the lack of historical data records in the transfer process , the inadequate supervision and control , the lack of clear regulations on the punishment of over - transfer and the like , and the like ;
The definition of initial water rights in the agricultural sector is unclear , and other sectors are squeezed and misappropriated .
The agricultural water - saving investment is insufficient , and the water - saving consciousness of the farmer is low .

( 5 ) The management countermeasure of water resources " agriculture turning off " under the perspective of food security . The historical monitoring and future prediction research of water resources " agriculture turn - off " is carried out , and the historical situation and development trend of water resources " agriculture turn - off " in our country have an overall judgment ;
perfect the relevant laws and regulations , clear the initial water rights and strengthen the legal construction of the water right transaction ;
The market mechanism is introduced to regulate the water rights trading market , perfect the three levels of the water rights trading market , and reduce the government intervention ;
Promote agricultural water - saving technologies , increase input of agricultural water - saving facilities , encourage farmers to set up water - saving concepts and adopt water - saving measures ;
Strengthen the management of the process of water resource " agriculture revolution " , establish the monitoring and management information platform , strictly control the transfer quantity and regulate the transfer procedure ;
Establish early warning mechanism for water resource monitoring , and strictly prevent the occurrence of various hidden dangers .
【学位授予单位】：山东农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F323.213;F326.11

【参考文献】