气候变化对钱塘江流域水资源的影响
发布时间：2018-07-14 15:35
【摘要】：工业革命以来,社会经济迅速发展、人口剧增,二氧化碳等温室气体的排放量也急剧增加,导致了全球气温的普遍升高。全球气温的升高给自然界及人类社会带来不容忽视的影响,这已经引起了社会各界的普遍关注。近几十年来的观测成果显示,全球温度的升高已经给水循环系统带来了严重的影响,这表现在极端事件如暴雨干旱等频发等方面。水是生命之源,水资源的安全问题关系到人类文明是否能够延续,因此研究气候变化给水资源带来的影响从而为未来水资源管理提供决策依据是十分必要的。 目前研究未来气候变化对流域水资源带来的影响一般是通过将气候模式与水文模型进行耦合来实现的。首先利用气候模式在假定情景下对未来气候变化进行预测模拟出水文模型所需要的气象要素,然后将模拟出的气象要素经过一定的处理后用于驱动水文模型从而模拟出流域的水资源情况。之所以要对气候模式模拟出的气象要素进行处理是因为气候模式的空间分辨率一般比较粗糙,如果直接将其输出结果应用于水文模型会给水资源的模拟带来较大的误差。通常过统计降尺度或者动力降尺度的方法来对气候模式的输出结果进行处理。 本文首先对钱塘江流域的降雨径流进行了趋势分析,并定量区分了气候变化及人类活动对钱塘流域的几个水文站的径流所造成的影响,然后以钱塘江流域的一个子流域金华江流域为例,分别研究了政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第四次及第五次报告下气候变化对金华江流域水资源的影响。在IPCC第四次报告(AR4)下采用了区域气候模式PRECIS对钱塘江流域未来气候变化情况进行了预测并且对PRECIS模拟的未来的降雨及温度进行了偏差纠正,然后通过水文模型DHSVM对金华江流域的未来水资源情况进行了模拟；在IPCC第五次报告(AR5)下采用大气环流模式BCC_CSM1_1模拟预测了金华江流域未来气候变化情况,并通过天气发生器LARS-WG对未来气象数据进行统计降尺度处理,然后通过水文模型DHSVM对未来气候下金华江流域的水资源情况进行了模拟。结果表明气候变化对钱塘江流域的历史径流的影响是不容忽视的,而且在IPCC第四次及第五次报告下未来金华江流域的径流都表现出了一定的变化,这些变化主要体现在径流的时间分布更加不均匀上面。
[Abstract]:Since the Industrial Revolution, the rapid development of social economy, population growth, carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases have also increased sharply, resulting in a general rise in global temperature. The rise of global temperature has brought great influence to the nature and human society, which has attracted the attention of all walks of life. Observations in recent decades show that the rise of global temperature has seriously affected the water circulation system, which is reflected in the frequent occurrence of extreme events such as rainstorms and droughts. Water is the source of life, the safety of water resources is related to the continuation of human civilization, so it is necessary to study the impact of climate change on water resources and provide the basis for future water resources management. At present, the impact of climate change on watershed water resources is generally studied by coupling climate model with hydrological model. First, the climate model is used to predict the future climate change in a given scenario to simulate the meteorological elements needed for the hydrological model. Then the simulated meteorological elements are used to drive the hydrological model after certain treatment to simulate the water resources in the basin. It is necessary to deal with the meteorological elements simulated by the climate model because the spatial resolution of the climate model is generally rough. If the output results are directly applied to the hydrological model, it will bring great errors to the simulation of water resources. Statistical downscaling or dynamic downscaling is usually used to process the output of climate models. In this paper, the trend of rainfall runoff in Qiantang River Basin is analyzed, and the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff of several hydrological stations in Qiantang River Basin are quantitatively distinguished. Then taking a sub-basin of Qiantang River as an example, the impacts of climate change on water resources in Jinhua River Basin under the fourth and fifth reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) were studied respectively. In the fourth IPCC report (AR4), the regional climate model PRECIS was used to predict the future climate change of Qiantang River basin, and the deviation of precipitation and temperature simulated by the IPCC was corrected. Then the future water resources of Jinhua River basin are simulated by hydrological model DHSVM, and the future climate change of Jinhua river basin is predicted by using the atmospheric circulation model BCCCSM11 under the fifth IPCC report (AR5). The weather generator LARS-WG was used to process the meteorological data in the future, and then the water resources in Jinhua River basin were simulated by the hydrological model DHSVM. The results show that the impact of climate change on the historical runoff of Qiantang River basin can not be ignored, and the runoff of Jinhua River basin in the future shows certain changes under the fourth and fifth IPCC reports. These changes are mainly reflected in the more uneven time distribution of runoff.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213;P467
本文编号：2122110
[Abstract]:Since the Industrial Revolution, the rapid development of social economy, population growth, carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases have also increased sharply, resulting in a general rise in global temperature. The rise of global temperature has brought great influence to the nature and human society, which has attracted the attention of all walks of life. Observations in recent decades show that the rise of global temperature has seriously affected the water circulation system, which is reflected in the frequent occurrence of extreme events such as rainstorms and droughts. Water is the source of life, the safety of water resources is related to the continuation of human civilization, so it is necessary to study the impact of climate change on water resources and provide the basis for future water resources management. At present, the impact of climate change on watershed water resources is generally studied by coupling climate model with hydrological model. First, the climate model is used to predict the future climate change in a given scenario to simulate the meteorological elements needed for the hydrological model. Then the simulated meteorological elements are used to drive the hydrological model after certain treatment to simulate the water resources in the basin. It is necessary to deal with the meteorological elements simulated by the climate model because the spatial resolution of the climate model is generally rough. If the output results are directly applied to the hydrological model, it will bring great errors to the simulation of water resources. Statistical downscaling or dynamic downscaling is usually used to process the output of climate models. In this paper, the trend of rainfall runoff in Qiantang River Basin is analyzed, and the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff of several hydrological stations in Qiantang River Basin are quantitatively distinguished. Then taking a sub-basin of Qiantang River as an example, the impacts of climate change on water resources in Jinhua River Basin under the fourth and fifth reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) were studied respectively. In the fourth IPCC report (AR4), the regional climate model PRECIS was used to predict the future climate change of Qiantang River basin, and the deviation of precipitation and temperature simulated by the IPCC was corrected. Then the future water resources of Jinhua River basin are simulated by hydrological model DHSVM, and the future climate change of Jinhua river basin is predicted by using the atmospheric circulation model BCCCSM11 under the fifth IPCC report (AR5). The weather generator LARS-WG was used to process the meteorological data in the future, and then the water resources in Jinhua River basin were simulated by the hydrological model DHSVM. The results show that the impact of climate change on the historical runoff of Qiantang River basin can not be ignored, and the runoff of Jinhua River basin in the future shows certain changes under the fourth and fifth IPCC reports. These changes are mainly reflected in the more uneven time distribution of runoff.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213;P467
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