吉林省水资源短缺风险等级评价及预测
发布时间：2018-08-07 18:04
【摘要】：采用2005~2014年的吉林省水资源相关数据,利用灰色关联分析法,选出水资源短缺的主要相关风险因子,对水资源系列进行模糊聚类,并采用灰色系统法对2015~2020年的水资源短缺风险进行预测。结果表明,水资源总量、三大产业用水量、其他生活用水及常住人口等指标与吉林省水资源短缺的关联度较大。在2008年以前,吉林省主要处于中等缺水等级,而在2008年以后,吉林省的缺水等级波动较大,主要是受到了当地气候及采取的水利措施的影响。如果按照现阶段吉林省水利发展情况,在非极端枯水年的情况下,直到2018年,吉林省都不会面临缺水的风险;如果有效调整吉林省的工业生产结构,控制常住人口数量,采用更有效的管理措施,则会有效地缓解2018年以后吉林省的水资源短缺状况。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of water resources in Jilin Province from 2005 to 2014, the main risk factors related to water resources shortage are selected by using grey relational analysis, and the series of water resources are clustered by fuzzy clustering. The grey system method is used to forecast the risk of water shortage from 2015 to 2020. The results show that the indexes of total water resources, water consumption of three major industries, other domestic water use and resident population are closely related to water resources shortage in Jilin Province. Before 2008, Jilin Province was mainly in the middle water shortage grade, but after 2008, the water shortage grade of Jilin Province fluctuated greatly, which was mainly affected by the local climate and the water conservancy measures taken. If, according to the current situation of water conservancy development in Jilin Province, in the case of non-extreme dry years, Jilin Province will not face the risk of water shortage until 2018; if the industrial production structure of Jilin Province is effectively adjusted to control the number of permanent residents, More effective management measures will effectively alleviate the water shortage in Jilin Province after 2018.
【作者单位】： 吉林省水利水电勘测设计研究院;
【基金】：水利部公益行业科研专项项目“松花江流域粮食生态安全水供求若干关键技术”(201501013)
【分类号】：TV213.4
[Abstract]:Based on the data of water resources in Jilin Province from 2005 to 2014, the main risk factors related to water resources shortage are selected by using grey relational analysis, and the series of water resources are clustered by fuzzy clustering. The grey system method is used to forecast the risk of water shortage from 2015 to 2020. The results show that the indexes of total water resources, water consumption of three major industries, other domestic water use and resident population are closely related to water resources shortage in Jilin Province. Before 2008, Jilin Province was mainly in the middle water shortage grade, but after 2008, the water shortage grade of Jilin Province fluctuated greatly, which was mainly affected by the local climate and the water conservancy measures taken. If, according to the current situation of water conservancy development in Jilin Province, in the case of non-extreme dry years, Jilin Province will not face the risk of water shortage until 2018; if the industrial production structure of Jilin Province is effectively adjusted to control the number of permanent residents, More effective management measures will effectively alleviate the water shortage in Jilin Province after 2018.
【作者单位】： 吉林省水利水电勘测设计研究院;
【基金】：水利部公益行业科研专项项目“松花江流域粮食生态安全水供求若干关键技术”(201501013)
【分类号】：TV213.4
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