江苏省水资源利用相对效率与影响因素研究
发布时间：2018-09-18 11:38
【摘要】：水资源是自然资源的重要组成部分,是生态环境的重要构成要素,是社会经济发展的重要物质基础。江苏省人口密度位于全国第四位、是东部经济发达地区,随着城市化进程的推进及全面建设小康社会脚步的加快,社会经济对于水资源的需求日益扩大,带来的水资源供需不协调问题也日渐突出,水资源短缺问题已成为社会经济发展过程重要的制约因素,提高水资源利用效率已迫在眉睫。全面客观地研究江苏省用水效率的时间分异性,探究影响水资源利用相对效率的相关因素,对江苏省节水型社会建设规划相关政策的制定、对策建议的实施具有重要的意义。本文基于国内外水资源利用效率定性研究的相关成功经验和重要成果,结合传统数据包络分析法及其改进方法,研究2005-2014年江苏省用水相对效率,并探索规模冗余率及技术冗余率与经济发展之间的关系,应用典型相关分析法研究影响江苏省水资源利用相对效率的相关因素。本文首先对数据包络分析模型以及江苏省水资源利用现状进行阐述,在此基础上对水资源利用相对效率进行系统研究。选取生活、生产用水,从业人员、固定资产投资和土地利用面积作为输入指标,地区生产总值作为输出指标,并结合层次分析法,将决策者的影响纳入研究中,结合江苏省2005-2014年相关指标数据,运用传统数据包括分析法求出各指标规模冗余率,利用改进的数据包络分析法求出技术冗余率,进而求出江苏省这10年间的水资源利用相对效率,研究其时间分异特征。为江苏省建设节水型社会工作的开展提供科学理论依据。研究结果如下:(1)从时间跨度来看,江苏省水资源规模冗余率与技术冗余率随时间变化不断下降,相对利用效率随着时间的变化整体处于平稳增长的趋势,证明了经济的发展推动了社会整体技术的进步,管理水平的上升,从而促进了水资源利用相对效率的提高。探究水资源利用规模冗余率与人均地区生产总值之间的关系,呈倒U形曲线,与环境库兹涅茨曲线相吻合,其中2006年为拐点年,06年之前人均收入较低,经济发展规模属于粗放式,需要依靠资源消耗来带动经济发展;06年之后,在社会经济的进一步发展过程中,资源利用相对效率逐渐受到重视,经济的发展不再单纯依靠资源的消耗,从而促进了用水相对效率的提高。而技术冗余率与人均地区生产总值则呈负相关关系,经济的发展推动了科技的进步,从而提高了水资源利用相对效率。(2)影响技术冗余率和规模冗余率的相关因素,通过分析发现并不完全相同;其中与技术冗余率呈正相关关系的因素为水资源开发利用率、第三产业比重和万元地区生产总值用水量,与规模冗余率正相关的因素是固定资产占地区生产总值比重、人均地区生产总值和万元地区生产总值用水量;两组典型变量的显著水平均为0.001,说明典型变量之间相关性是显著的。(3)江苏省应从水资源管理体制、节水技术、公民节水意识等方面有效提高水资源利用相对效率。
[Abstract]:Water resources are an important part of natural resources, an important component of ecological environment, and an important material basis for social and economic development. The population density of Jiangsu Province is located in the fourth place in the country. It is an economically developed area in the eastern part of China. With the increasing demand, the imbalance between supply and demand of water resources has become increasingly prominent. The shortage of water resources has become an important restrictive factor in the process of social and economic development. It is imminent to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources. Relevant factors are of great significance to the formulation of relevant policies and the implementation of countermeasures and suggestions for the construction of water-saving society in Jiangsu Province.Based on the successful experience and important results of qualitative research on water use efficiency both at home and abroad, and combined with traditional data envelopment analysis and its improvement methods, this paper studies the relative water use in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2014. Efficiency, and explore the relationship between scale redundancy rate and technical redundancy rate and economic development, using canonical correlation analysis method to study the relevant factors affecting the relative efficiency of water resources utilization in Jiangsu Province. Efficiency is systematically studied. Life, production water, employees, investment in fixed assets and land use area are selected as input indicators, GDP as output indicators, and the impact of decision makers is included in the study by combining with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Combined with the relevant indicators data of Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2014, traditional data inclusion analysis is used. The method calculates the scale redundancy rate of each index, uses the improved data envelopment analysis method to calculate the technical redundancy rate, then calculates the relative efficiency of water resources utilization in Jiangsu Province in the past 10 years, and studies its time differentiation characteristics. The scale redundancy rate and technical redundancy rate of water resources in Jiangsu Province declined with time and the relative utilization efficiency increased steadily with time. It is proved that the economic development has promoted the progress of the whole society's technology and the rise of the management level, thus promoting the improvement of the relative efficiency of water resources utilization. The relationship between the redundancy rate of resource utilization scale and the per capita GDP shows an inverted U-shaped curve, which is consistent with the environmental Kuznets curve. The year 2006 is the turning point, the per capita income before 2006 is low, and the scale of economic development is extensive, which needs to rely on resource consumption to promote economic development; after 2006, the social economy will be further developed. In the process of development, the relative efficiency of resource utilization has been paid more and more attention. Economic development is no longer simply dependent on the consumption of resources, thus promoting the improvement of relative efficiency of water use. (2) Relative factors affecting technical redundancy and scale redundancy are not exactly the same; the factors positively correlated with technical redundancy are water resources utilization, the proportion of tertiary industry and the water consumption of 10,000 yuan of GDP, and the factors positively correlated with scale redundancy are the production of fixed assets in the region. The proportion of gross value, the per capita gross domestic product and the water consumption of ten thousand yuan gross domestic product are all 0.001, indicating that the correlation between the two typical variables is significant. (3) Jiangsu Province should effectively improve the relative efficiency of water resources utilization from the aspects of water resources management system, water-saving technology, water-saving consciousness of citizens.
【学位授予单位】：南京农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV213.9
本文编号：2247789
[Abstract]:Water resources are an important part of natural resources, an important component of ecological environment, and an important material basis for social and economic development. The population density of Jiangsu Province is located in the fourth place in the country. It is an economically developed area in the eastern part of China. With the increasing demand, the imbalance between supply and demand of water resources has become increasingly prominent. The shortage of water resources has become an important restrictive factor in the process of social and economic development. It is imminent to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources. Relevant factors are of great significance to the formulation of relevant policies and the implementation of countermeasures and suggestions for the construction of water-saving society in Jiangsu Province.Based on the successful experience and important results of qualitative research on water use efficiency both at home and abroad, and combined with traditional data envelopment analysis and its improvement methods, this paper studies the relative water use in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2014. Efficiency, and explore the relationship between scale redundancy rate and technical redundancy rate and economic development, using canonical correlation analysis method to study the relevant factors affecting the relative efficiency of water resources utilization in Jiangsu Province. Efficiency is systematically studied. Life, production water, employees, investment in fixed assets and land use area are selected as input indicators, GDP as output indicators, and the impact of decision makers is included in the study by combining with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Combined with the relevant indicators data of Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2014, traditional data inclusion analysis is used. The method calculates the scale redundancy rate of each index, uses the improved data envelopment analysis method to calculate the technical redundancy rate, then calculates the relative efficiency of water resources utilization in Jiangsu Province in the past 10 years, and studies its time differentiation characteristics. The scale redundancy rate and technical redundancy rate of water resources in Jiangsu Province declined with time and the relative utilization efficiency increased steadily with time. It is proved that the economic development has promoted the progress of the whole society's technology and the rise of the management level, thus promoting the improvement of the relative efficiency of water resources utilization. The relationship between the redundancy rate of resource utilization scale and the per capita GDP shows an inverted U-shaped curve, which is consistent with the environmental Kuznets curve. The year 2006 is the turning point, the per capita income before 2006 is low, and the scale of economic development is extensive, which needs to rely on resource consumption to promote economic development; after 2006, the social economy will be further developed. In the process of development, the relative efficiency of resource utilization has been paid more and more attention. Economic development is no longer simply dependent on the consumption of resources, thus promoting the improvement of relative efficiency of water use. (2) Relative factors affecting technical redundancy and scale redundancy are not exactly the same; the factors positively correlated with technical redundancy are water resources utilization, the proportion of tertiary industry and the water consumption of 10,000 yuan of GDP, and the factors positively correlated with scale redundancy are the production of fixed assets in the region. The proportion of gross value, the per capita gross domestic product and the water consumption of ten thousand yuan gross domestic product are all 0.001, indicating that the correlation between the two typical variables is significant. (3) Jiangsu Province should effectively improve the relative efficiency of water resources utilization from the aspects of water resources management system, water-saving technology, water-saving consciousness of citizens.
【学位授予单位】：南京农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV213.9
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 赵良仕;孙才志;郑德凤;;中国省际水资源利用效率与空间溢出效应测度[J];地理学报;2014年01期
2 孙才志;陈栓;赵良仕;;基于ESDA的中国省际水足迹强度的空间关联格局分析[J];自然资源学报;2013年04期
3 刘渝;王岌;;农业水资源利用效率分析——全要素水资源调整目标比率的应用[J];华中农业大学学报(社会科学版);2012年06期
4 潘丹;应瑞瑶;;中国水资源与农业经济增长关系研究——基于面板VAR模型[J];中国人口.资源与环境;2012年01期
5 李川;王恩德;;辽宁沿渤海地区水资源利用效率初评[J];环境科学与管理;2012年01期
6 董毅明;廖虎昌;;基于DEA的西部省会城市水资源利用效率研究[J];水土保持通报;2011年04期
7 钱文婧;贺灿飞;;中国水资源利用效率区域差异及影响因素研究[J];中国人口.资源与环境;2011年02期
8 王艳菊;吴泽宁;胡彩虹;;松辽流域区域水资源利用效率及其差异分析[J];水电能源科学;2010年10期
9 雷波;刘钰;许迪;姜文来;;农业水资源利用效用评价研究进展[J];水科学进展;2009年05期
10 孙才志;李红新;;辽宁省水资源利用相对效率的时空分异[J];资源科学;2008年10期
相关博士学位论文 前1条
1 吴德胜;数据包络分析若干理论和方法研究[D];中国科学技术大学;2006年
，本文编号：2247789
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/kejilunwen/zylw/2247789.html
