基于Schaefer模型的东南太平洋茎柔鱼资源评估和管理

发布时间：2018-11-16 12:17

【摘要】：东南太平洋茎柔鱼(Dosidicus gigas)是世界范围内最重要的经济头足类之一,也是我国鱿钓渔船的重要捕捞对象。本文根据2003—2012年中国大陆的渔业数据和FAO统计的东南太平洋茎柔鱼产量数据,利用Schaefer模型,基于贝叶斯统计方法,分基准方案和敏感性分析方案对东南太平洋茎柔鱼资源进行评估,并对其管理策略做了风险分析。结果表明,年渔获量和CPUE数据为贝叶斯资源评估模型提供了足够多的信息。2003—2012年捕捞死亡率低于目标参考点F0.1,渔获量小于最大可持续产量,资源量大于目标参考点Bmsy,资源状况良好,未遭受过度捕捞。在基准方案下,最大可持续产量为142.9万吨,维持最大可持续产量的资源量为214.7万吨,此时的捕捞死亡率为0.682;在敏感性分析方案下,最大的可持续产量为152.5万吨,维持最大可持续产量的资源量为229.6万吨,此时的捕捞死亡率为0.691。决策分析和风险分析表明,当捕获率设定为0.3以下时,资源能够得到较好的养护,资源崩溃的可能性很低。将捕获率设定在0.3左右是最适的管理策略,此时的持续产量为99万吨左右。
[Abstract]:(Dosidicus gigas) in the southeastern Pacific Ocean is one of the most important cephalopods in the world and is also an important fishing object for squid jigging vessels in China. Based on the fishery data of China mainland from 2003 to 2012 and the yield data of cawfish in southeastern Pacific from 2003 to 2012, based on Bayesian statistical method, the Schaefer model is used in this paper. Based on the baseline and sensitivity analysis schemes, the resource of Mollusca in the Southeast Pacific was evaluated, and its management strategy was analyzed. The results showed that the annual catch and CPUE data provided sufficient information for Bayesian resource assessment model. In 2003-2012, the fishing mortality rate was lower than the target reference point F0.1, and the catch was less than the maximum sustainable yield. The resource quantity is larger than the target reference point Bmsy, resource is in good condition and has not been overfished. Under the baseline scheme, the maximum sustainable production is 1.429 million tons, and the resource quantity to maintain the maximum sustainable yield is 2.147 million tons, and the fishing mortality is 0.682; Under the sensitivity analysis, the maximum sustainable yield was 1.525 million tons, and the resources to maintain the maximum sustainable yield was 2.296 million tons. The fishing mortality was 0.691. Decision analysis and risk analysis show that when the capture rate is set below 0.3, the resources can be well maintained and the possibility of resource collapse is very low. The optimal management strategy is to set the capture rate around 0. 3, and the sustained output is about 990000 tons.
【作者单位】：上海海洋大学海洋科学学院;远洋渔业协同创新中心;上海海洋大学国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心;上海海洋大学大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室;
【基金】：国家863计划(2012AA092303) 上海市研究生教育创新计划和国家科技支撑计划(2013BAD13B01)
【分类号】：S932.4

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