中国结构升级、技术进步与水资源消耗——基于改进的LMDI方法

发布时间：2018-12-11 01:42

【摘要】：针对水资源消耗强度问题,本文基于改进的LMDI方法研究1997-2011年我国水资源消耗强度变化的影响因素。我们发现,总效应与强度效应具有相似的变化趋势,强度效应下降及反转是总效应下降及反转的主要原因,产业结构效应未促进用水强度下降;利用完全模型得到,各省份用水效率普遍提高,主要由于技术进步,东部发达地区是用水强度下降的主要推动因素,产业结构效应并未推动总效应下降,区域结构效应对总效应的影响较弱;利用简化模型得到,总效应下降幅度较大的省份集中于西部地区,产业结构效应与强度效应对总效应的影响与完全模型一致,东部地区产业结构效应促进总效应下降的效果好于中西部地区;改进的LMDI方法符合残差检验和时间反演检验。因此,各省份发展经济的同时,需要关注技术创新,尤其中西部地区;加快产业结构调整,也是提高用水效率的重要途径;加强发达地区对欠发达地区的支持,缩小区域社会经济差距。
[Abstract]:Aiming at the problem of water resource consumption intensity, this paper studies the influencing factors of water resource consumption intensity change in China from 1997 to 2011 based on the improved LMDI method. We found that the total effect and the intensity effect have the similar change trend, the intensity effect decline and the reversal is the main reason of the total effect decline and reversal, the industrial structure effect does not promote the water use intensity to decline; By using the complete model, the efficiency of water use in each province is generally improved, mainly due to the technological progress, the eastern developed region is the main driving factor for the decrease of water use intensity, and the industrial structure effect does not promote the total effect to decline. The effect of regional structure on the total effect is weak; By using the simplified model, the provinces with a large decrease in total effect are concentrated in the western region, and the effects of industrial structure effect and intensity effect on the total effect are consistent with the complete model. The effect of industrial structure effect in eastern region is better than that in central and western region. The improved LMDI method accords with residual error test and time inversion test. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to technological innovation, especially in the central and western regions, and accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure, which is also an important way to improve the efficiency of water use. We will strengthen the support of the developed regions to the less developed areas and narrow the regional social and economic disparities.
【作者单位】：河海大学商学院;
【基金】：水利部中央分成水资源费项目(编号:1261320212020)
【分类号】：TV213.4

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