华北水资源年代际变化及其与全球变暖之间的关联
发布时间：2018-12-14 14:49
【摘要】：本文利用1951～2011年期间中国台站资料、东亚地区的探空资料、NCEP/NCAR和ERA40等大气再分析资料,通过对水分平衡方程诊断探讨了华北地区过去60年中水资源和可利用降水量的变化特征及其与大尺度环流变化之间的关系。结果发现,华北地区69%的降水量被蒸发,可利用降水仅仅为降水量的31%。夏季可利用降水是华北水资源的主要来源,华北夏季可利用降水量在80年代初发生突变减少,进入21世纪初,伴随蒸发量的增加该地区可利用降水量进一步减少。西风带水汽与东亚夏季风水汽是华北可利用降水的主要来源。NCAR/NCEP和EAR40再分析资料的结果均显示贝加尔湖一带的位势高度偏低和西太平洋高压的偏强有利于该地区降水增多。利用探空资料进一步证明,蒙古以及贝加尔湖地区的温度在对流层低层变暖和位势高度场的加强导致了过去几十年华北可利用降水量减少。由于贝加尔湖地区温度变化与全球变暖存在密切关联,监测该地区温度的变化对预测华北水资源和东亚夏季风的长期变化具有重要的意义。
[Abstract]:In this paper, we use the data of Chinese stations from 1951 to 2011, the sounding data of East Asia, and the atmospheric reanalysis data such as NCEP/NCAR and ERA40. The variation characteristics of water resources and available precipitation in North China over the past 60 years and the relationship between water resources and available precipitation and large scale circulation are discussed by diagnosing the water balance equation. The results show that 69% of the precipitation in North China is evaporated, and the available precipitation is only 31% of the precipitation. The available precipitation in summer is the main source of water resources in North China. The available precipitation in North China decreased suddenly in the early 1980s, and with the increase of evaporation in the beginning of the 21st century, the available precipitation in this area was further reduced. The results of NCAR/NCEP and EAR40 reanalysis data show that the low geopotential height in Lake Baikal and the strong of the western Pacific high are favorable to the precipitation in this area. Using the sounding data, it is further proved that the enhancement of the temperature field in the lower troposphere and the geopotential height field in Mongolia and Lake Baikal resulted in the decrease of available precipitation in North China in the past few decades. As the temperature variation in Lake Baikal is closely related to global warming, monitoring the temperature change in the region is of great significance in predicting the long-term variation of North China water resources and East Asian summer monsoon.
【作者单位】： 中国气象科学研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目41221064 中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务项目Z2010Z001、Z2010Z003、2013Z002 中国科学院碳专项XDA05090408
【分类号】：TV213.4;P467
[Abstract]:In this paper, we use the data of Chinese stations from 1951 to 2011, the sounding data of East Asia, and the atmospheric reanalysis data such as NCEP/NCAR and ERA40. The variation characteristics of water resources and available precipitation in North China over the past 60 years and the relationship between water resources and available precipitation and large scale circulation are discussed by diagnosing the water balance equation. The results show that 69% of the precipitation in North China is evaporated, and the available precipitation is only 31% of the precipitation. The available precipitation in summer is the main source of water resources in North China. The available precipitation in North China decreased suddenly in the early 1980s, and with the increase of evaporation in the beginning of the 21st century, the available precipitation in this area was further reduced. The results of NCAR/NCEP and EAR40 reanalysis data show that the low geopotential height in Lake Baikal and the strong of the western Pacific high are favorable to the precipitation in this area. Using the sounding data, it is further proved that the enhancement of the temperature field in the lower troposphere and the geopotential height field in Mongolia and Lake Baikal resulted in the decrease of available precipitation in North China in the past few decades. As the temperature variation in Lake Baikal is closely related to global warming, monitoring the temperature change in the region is of great significance in predicting the long-term variation of North China water resources and East Asian summer monsoon.
【作者单位】： 中国气象科学研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目41221064 中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务项目Z2010Z001、Z2010Z003、2013Z002 中国科学院碳专项XDA05090408
【分类号】：TV213.4;P467
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 叶柏生,李，
本文编号：2378783
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