济宁市动态情景水资源优化配置及评价研究

发布时间：2018-12-15 04:57

【摘要】：水是一切生命生存和发展的物质基础,人类的一切活动均建立在对水资源的开发与利用的基础之上。由于水资源与自然、社会、经济之间有着千丝万缕的联系,使水资源表现出多功能性和不可替代性,因此水资源成为支撑社会经济发展的基本要素之一。但是随着社会经济的快速发展,水资源面临巨大的压力,比较突出的问题就是水资源短缺问题。水资源短缺成为制约社会经济发展的瓶颈因素之一,因此必须要实现水资源的合理高效利用,这就需要进行水资源的合理配置。本文以济宁市为例,进行了济宁市水资源的优化配置研究,并且在配置过程中充分考虑水情、社会经济发展情景的不确定性,实现了动态情景下的水资源优化配置,更加科学、合理,有利于实现济宁市水资源的可持续利用,具有指导意义。本文以2010年为现状水平年,规划水平年为2015年和2020年,主要进行了如下几方面的研究： (1)济宁市水资源调查评价和水资源开发利用分析,得到济宁市多年平均地表水资源量及其可利用量、地下水资源量及其可利用量、水资源总量及其可利用总量,并对济宁市的供用水现状及近10年的供用水结构进行了分析。 (2)济宁市供需水预测研究。需水预测为动态情景下的需水预测,本文分不同需水方案(基本方案、推荐方案)在不同水情(保证率P=50%、P=75%)、不同社会经济发展情景(方案Ⅰ、方案Ⅱ、方案Ⅲ)下对近期规划水平年2015年以及中期规划水平年2020年的需水量进行了预测；供水预测在水资源现状调查评价基础上,综合考虑水资源的特点以及新增供水工程建设,并充分利用非常规水及跨流域调水,得到各规划水平年不同保证率(P=50%、P=75%)下的总可供水量。 (3)济宁市规划年动态情景下的水资源优化配置。根据供需水预测方案,生成水资源配置方案集,拟定4种配置情景,然后建立水资源优化配置模型进行优化计算,得到不同水平年的配置结果并对配置结果进行分析。 (4)济宁市配置方案实施效果评价及方案比选。选取协调系数作为主要指标对配置方案进行实施效果评价；选定缺水量、缺水率、综合协调度作为主要评价指标,进行方案的优劣对比,选择最优方案。
[Abstract]:Water is the material basis for the survival and development of all life, and all human activities are based on the exploitation and utilization of water resources. As water resources are closely related to nature, society and economy, water resources are multifunctional and irreplaceable. Therefore, water resources have become one of the basic factors supporting the development of social economy. However, with the rapid development of social economy, water resources are facing great pressure. The shortage of water resources has become one of the bottleneck factors restricting the development of social economy. Therefore, it is necessary to realize the rational and efficient utilization of water resources, which requires the rational allocation of water resources. Taking Jining City as an example, this paper studies the optimal allocation of water resources in Jining City, and fully considers the water situation and the uncertainty of social and economic development scenarios in the process of allocation, and realizes the optimal allocation of water resources under dynamic scenarios, which is more scientific. It is reasonable and helpful to realize the sustainable utilization of water resources in Jining city. In this paper, 2010 is the current level year, and the planning level year is 2015 and 2020. The main researches are as follows: (1) water resources investigation and evaluation and analysis of water resources development and utilization in Jining. The average surface water resource quantity and its utilization quantity, groundwater water resources quantity and available quantity, water resources total amount and available total amount in Jining city are obtained. The present situation of water supply and water supply structure in Jining city are analyzed. (2) study on water supply and demand forecast in Jining city. Water demand forecasting is a kind of water demand prediction under dynamic scenarios. In this paper, different water demand schemes (basic schemes, recommended schemes) and different socio-economic development scenarios (scheme I, scheme II) are divided into different water conditions (assurance rate P50%) and different socio-economic development scenarios (scheme I, scheme II). The water demand for 2015 and 2020 for the recent planning level year and the medium-term planning level year 2020 are forecasted under Programme III; The prediction of water supply is based on the investigation and evaluation of the present situation of water resources, considering comprehensively the characteristics of water resources and the construction of new water supply projects, and making full use of unconventional water and water transfer across river basins to obtain different guaranteed rates (P50) per year at various planning levels. The total available water supply is 75%. (3) optimal allocation of water resources under dynamic scenario of planning year in Jining city. According to the forecast scheme of water supply and demand, the water resources allocation scheme set is generated, and four kinds of allocation scenarios are drawn up, and then the optimal allocation model of water resources is established for optimal calculation, and the allocation results of different level years are obtained and the allocation results are analyzed. (4) Evaluation of the effect of Jining's configuration scheme and comparison of the scheme. The coordination coefficient is selected as the main index to evaluate the implementation effect of the allocation scheme, and the water shortage, water shortage rate and comprehensive coordination degree are selected as the main evaluation indexes, and the advantages and disadvantages of the scheme are compared and the optimal scheme is selected.
【学位授予单位】：山东农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4

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