1999—2011年东、黄海鲐资源丰度年间变化分析

发布时间：2019-05-10 21:08

【摘要】：根据1999—2011年我国鲐大型灯光围网渔业数据,使用广义线性模型(generalized linear model,GLM)和广义加性模型(generalized additive model,GAM)估算了影响CPUE的时间(年、月)、空间(经度、纬度)、捕捞性能和环境效应[海表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)、海表面高度、海表面叶绿素浓度],并以年效应作为资源丰度指数,分析了东、黄海鲐资源丰度的年间变化,东、黄海鲐资源丰度指数的年间变化与产卵场海表面温度以及捕捞强度间的关系。GAM结果表明,时间、空间、捕捞和环境变量对CPUE偏差的解释率为11.69%,其中变量年的解释率最大,占总解释率的38%。结果显示,1999—2011年东、黄海鲐鱼资源丰度指数(abundance index,AI)总体上呈下降趋势,2008年以来更是持续下降,丰度指数由2008年的1.22降至2011年的0.82。东、黄海鲐资源丰度指数年间与产卵场呈正相关,关系式为AI=-3.51+0.23SST(P0.05),这表明较高的产卵场SST对鲐资源量增加有利。过高的渔获量以及我国群众围网渔业渔船数量的快速增长是导致近年来鲐鱼资源下降的重要原因。
[Abstract]:Based on the large light purse seine fishery data of mackerel in China from 1999 to 2011, the time (year, month) and space (longitude, latitude) affecting CPUE were estimated by using the generalized linear model (generalized linear model,GLM and the generalized additive model (generalized additive model,GAM. Fishing performance and environmental effects [sea surface temperature (sea surface temperature,SST), sea surface height, sea surface chlorophyll concentration], and taking the annual effect as the resource abundance index, the interannual variation of mackerel resource abundance in East and Huang Hai was analyzed. The relationship between the annual variation of Huang Hai mackerel resource abundance index and the sea surface temperature and fishing intensity of spawning grounds. Gam results show that the interpretation rate of CPUE deviation by time, space, fishing and environmental variables is 11.69%. Among them, the interpretation rate of variable year is the largest, accounting for 38% of the total interpretation rate. The results showed that the abundance index (abundance index,AI) of Huang Hai mackerel resources showed a downward trend in the east of 1999-2011, and continued to decline since 2008, from 1.22 in 2008 to 0.82 in 2011. In the east, Huang Hai mackerel resource abundance index was positively correlated with the spawning field during the years, and the relationship was AI=-3.51 0.23SST (P 0.05), which indicated that the higher spawning field SST was beneficial to the increase of mackerel resources. The high catch and the rapid increase of the number of fishing vessels in purse seine fisheries in China are the important reasons for the decline of mackerel resources in recent years.
【作者单位】：上海海洋大学海洋科学学院;上海海洋大学大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室;上海海洋大学农业部大洋渔业资源环境科学观测实验站;上海海洋大学远洋渔业协同创新中心;
【基金】：国家“八六三”高技术研究发展计划(2012AA092303) 国家发改委产业化专项(2159999) 上海市科技创新行动计划(12231203900) 国家科技支撑计划(2013BAD13B01)
【分类号】：S932

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