中国图书市场规模宏观经济模型建构与分析

发布时间：2018-03-21 04:13

本文选题：图书市场　切入点：发展阶段　出处：《出版广角》2017年22期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章汇总了1978年至2016年我国各年度宏观经济指标与图书出版业主要数据,发现自改革开放以来,无论是依据内部指标,还是外部指标,中国图书市场都存在四个特征明显各异的阶段。然后基于分期数据,文章通过因子分析和多元线性回归数学建模,建立了中国图书市场规模宏观经济模型。模型提示,自1999年以来,中国图书市场规模主要与社会宏观经济指标相关,而与图书行业的产出关系较小,且其发展过程中,城镇的推动作用远大于农村。最后,文章依据模型与"十三五"规划控制指标,预测了2020年中国图书市场规模,讨论了中国图书市场面临的机遇与挑战。
[Abstract]:This paper summarizes the macroeconomic indicators and the main data of the book publishing industry in China from 1978 to 2016. It is found that since the reform and opening up, both internal and external indicators have been used. There are four distinct stages in Chinese book market. Then, based on the stage data, this paper establishes the macroeconomic model of the scale of Chinese book market by factor analysis and multiple linear regression mathematical model. Since 1999, the scale of the book market in China has been mainly related to the social and macroeconomic indicators, but not to the output of the book industry. In the process of its development, the role of the cities and towns has been far greater than that of the rural areas. Based on the model and the control index of the 13th Five-Year Plan, this paper predicts the scale of China's book market in 2020, and discusses the opportunities and challenges that the Chinese book market is facing.
【作者单位】：海峡书局出版社;
【分类号】：G239.2-F

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