劳动力市场状况与犯罪:理论、仿真与浙江经验

发布时间：2018-12-30 16:08

【摘要】：劳动力市场状况与犯罪的关系是犯罪经济学最核心的研究主题之一。基于浙江28个县1980年到1989年的面板数据,本文对劳动力市场状况影响犯罪供给的机理和效应展开了详细的定性定量分析。双侧固定效应模型的估计结果显示:(1)工资差距每上升一个百分点,一般刑事犯罪率将平均上升0.15%;(2)相比侵财犯罪,暴力犯罪对工资收入差距扩大的弹性更大;(3)刑罚威慑弱化和快速的城市化是20世纪80年代后期浙江犯罪率显著攀升的重要原因。以上估计结果对犯罪供给方程估计中存在的不可观测的异质性、遗漏变量及样本选择等典型的内生性问题保持稳健,因而,为国内外犯罪经济学的实证研究提供了新证据,对我国转型期犯罪治理公共政策制定存在相应的参考价值。
[Abstract]:The relationship between labor market conditions and crime is one of the core topics of crime economics. Based on the panel data from 1980 to 1989 in 28 counties of Zhejiang Province, this paper presents a detailed qualitative and quantitative analysis of the mechanism and effects of the labor market conditions affecting the supply of crime. The results of the bilateral fixed effect model show that: (1) the average criminal crime rate will increase by 0.15 per cent when the wage gap rises by one percentage point; (2) compared with the crime of invading money, violent crime is more flexible to the widening of wage and income gap; (3) the weakening of penalty deterrence and rapid urbanization are the important reasons for the significant increase of crime rate in Zhejiang in the late 1980s. The above results are robust to the unobservable heterogeneity, missing variables and sample selection in the estimation of the crime supply equation, thus providing new evidence for the empirical study of crime economics at home and abroad. It has the corresponding reference value to the crime management public policy formulation in the transition period of our country.
【作者单位】：浙江工商大学公共管理学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科青年项目(项目编号:10YJC790016) 浙江省自然科学基金项目(项目编号:Y6090632) 浙江工商大学青年人才基金项目(Q07-06)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F249.27;D917;F224

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