政治精英选择视角下的台湾和新加坡民主转型分析

发布时间：2018-08-14 16:03

【摘要】：在当今世界范围之内，民主化是政治生活领域的一个重要趋势，纵观民主化的历史进程可以发现，从20世纪70年代末90年代初，在全世界范围之内兴起了被学术界成为第三波民主化的浪潮，这次民主化席卷了数十个国家，大量的威权政权在这次浪潮中受到强烈冲击，要么轰然垮台，要么主动或者被动转型，开始走上了民主化道路。其中台湾和新加坡两个地区，引起学术界和世人的广泛关注。这两个地区都属于儒家文化圈，并且都属于最狭义范围上的华人社会，在20世纪80年代中后期其经济发展水平、中产阶级力量、识字率、城市化水平等一系列结构条件都已到达民主转型的标准，然而两个地区的民主转型却呈现天壤之别，台湾在经历最初的压制、动乱之后，统治者综合考虑压制的成本和开启自由化的收益，选择了顺应时势，在10年之内，较平稳地从自由化到民主化，实现了民主转型。而新加坡，却走上了另外一条不同的道路。自始至终，执政党就没有意愿与反对势力妥协、谈判，面对反对势力的挑战，执政党选择的借助国家力量严厉打压，恩威并施，反对力量始终处于围追堵截之中，，一直就没能成为政治生活中的力量，只能在具体政策层面上发表一些观点或者被笼络进政府内部。反对派未能成气候发展壮大，内部也就更难以分成激进派和温和派，加上执政阵营中强硬派始终占据主导地位，所以缺乏改革派和温和派联合的现实条件，导致民主化的结构条件已经具备，却没有足够的力量去推动民主转型第一步的吊诡现象。新加坡的威权政治得以一直延续至今，成为发达国家中的一个另类。新加坡和台湾，在20世纪80年代末都已经具备了结构主义者界定的转型条件，但是转型结果却截然相反。由此可见，结构条件只是民主转型的必要条件而非充分条件，它只是为民主转型提供了可能性，但具备结构条件并不意味着一定能够实现转型。当处于民主转型的门槛时，需要政治行动者尤其是政治精英去推动甚至加快这个过程，政治行动者之间的互动让民主转型变成现实。经济发展、中产阶级的产生、市民社会的不断成熟、大众民主诉求的增强等结构条件并不能直接推动民主化的进程，它们要想在政治生活中发挥重要作用，就必须找到一个着力点和助推力，这就是政治精英的选择和互动。
[Abstract]:In today's world, democratization is an important trend in the field of political life. Looking at the historical process of democratization, we can find that from the late 1970s to the early 1990s, A third wave of democratization has emerged around the world, which has become the third wave of democratization by the academic community. This democratization has engulfed dozens of countries. A large number of authoritarian regimes have been strongly impacted by this wave, or collapsed. Either active or passive transformation, began to embark on the road to democratization. Among them, Taiwan and Singapore two regions, cause academic circles and the world wide attention. Both areas belong to the Confucian cultural circle, and both belong to the most narrow sense of the Chinese society. In the mid and late 1980s, their level of economic development, middle-class strength, literacy rate, A series of structural conditions, such as the level of urbanization, have reached the standard of democratic transformation. However, the democratic transformation in the two regions is quite different. After the initial repression and turmoil in Taiwan, Considering the cost of suppression and the benefits of liberalization, the rulers chose to adapt to the current situation and, within 10 years, smoothly changed from liberalization to democratization and realized the democratic transformation. Singapore, on the other hand, has embarked on a different path. From beginning to end, the ruling party did not have the will to compromise with the opposition forces, to negotiate. In the face of the challenge of the opposition forces, the ruling party chose to resort to the help of national forces to crack down severely. Has not been able to become a force in political life, can only express some views at the specific policy level or be lured into the government. If the opposition fails to grow stronger, it will be more difficult to divide the opposition into radicals and moderates internally. In addition, the hard-liners in the ruling camp have always occupied a dominant position, so they lack the realistic conditions for the combination of reformists and moderates. The structural conditions leading to democratization are already in place, but there is not enough power to promote the first step of democratic transformation. Singapore's authoritarian politics continues to this day as an alternative in the developed world. Singapore and Taiwan, in the late 1980s, already had the structural definition of the transition conditions, but the outcome of the transformation is quite the opposite. It can be seen that structural conditions are only necessary conditions but not sufficient conditions for democratic transformation. It only provides the possibility for democratic transformation, but having structural conditions does not necessarily mean that it can be realized. When we are on the threshold of democratic transformation, we need political actors, especially political elites, to promote or even speed up the process. The interaction between political actors makes democratic transformation a reality. The structural conditions of economic development, the emergence of the middle class, the constant maturity of civil society and the enhancement of popular democratic aspirations cannot directly promote the process of democratization. They want to play an important role in political life. You have to find a point and a boost, which is the choice and interaction of the political elite.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：D675.8;D733.9

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