乌克兰危机的理论透视

发布时间：2018-08-30 10:46

【摘要】：2013年年底开始的乌克兰危机迅速从形式上的国内宪政危机演变成为国际政治冲突,由此引发的大国间矛盾甚至被不少评论人士认为是新冷战的开端。在复杂事态背后,不同的利益相关方又根据不同的评判标准对于整个事态的起因和性质给出了全然不同的解读。作者试图在综合总结上述不同解读的同时,提出自己的基本认识:"民主和专制之争"的视角不能有效理解乌克兰危机的本质,需要将"合法性"、"历史与文化认同"和"地缘政治"三个视角结合来把握危机的性质。作者依据这三个视角的组合对乌克兰政治进程对于未来世界格局和国家间关系的影响做出预测:威斯特伐利亚体系受到重大挑战,由此西方国家回归结盟政策、国际政治部分回归20世纪初期特征的可能性上升。相对于民族国家政治实体成员的身份认同,族群、宗教、语言等身份认同在国际政治中的作用将会上升,国际政治的文化冲突色彩更加浓重。虽然新冷战的可能性被夸大,但俄罗斯会努力寻求与其他非西方力量联合,大国间相互制约和竞争的样态将更加复杂。
[Abstract]:The crisis in Ukraine, which began at the end of 2013, rapidly evolved from a formal domestic constitutional crisis to an international political conflict, which led to conflicts among the great powers and was even regarded by many commentators as the beginning of the new cold war. Behind the complex situation, different stakeholders give a completely different interpretation of the cause and nature of the whole situation according to different criteria. At the same time, the author tries to sum up the different interpretations mentioned above, and puts forward his own basic understanding: "the argument between democracy and autocracy" cannot effectively understand the nature of the crisis in Ukraine. "legitimacy", "historical and cultural identity" and "geopolitics" should be combined to grasp the nature of the crisis. Based on the combination of these three perspectives, the author predicts the impact of the Ukrainian political process on the future world pattern and inter-state relations: the Westphalia system is challenged, and the Western countries return to the alliance policy. The possibility of a partial return to the early features of the 20 th century has risen in international politics. Compared with the identity of the political entity members of the nation-state, the identity of ethnic group, religion, language and so on will rise in international politics, and the cultural conflict of international politics will be more intense. While the possibility of a new cold war is overblown, Russia will seek to unite with other non-Western forces, and the model of mutual restraint and competition among big powers will be more complex.
【作者单位】：华东师范大学国际关系与地区发展研究院;教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地华东师范大学俄罗斯研究中心;
【分类号】：D751.13

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