北欧国家社会保障制度改革的经济效应研究

发布时间：2018-11-20 05:04

【摘要】：由于20世纪80年代的经济危机,北欧五国出现了经济增长下降、失业率上升等问题,其高福利制度面临严峻的挑战。90年代北欧国家开始进行福利制度改革,改革效果令人瞩目,即使在欧盟主权债务危机严重的时期,北欧五国依然保持了稳定的增长和较高的就业率。本文从劳动就业、储蓄与消费、宏观经济增长三大方面,对1990-2013年北欧国家社保制度改革的经济效应进行了分析,主要得出以下结论:首先,20世纪90年代的改革,使失业率下降并维持在一个相对较低的水平,并且,瑞典与丹麦的劳动力年均工作时间一度呈现出上升趋势;其次,除丹麦外,北欧国家社保支出水平与国民储蓄率、居民最终消费支出负相关,社保制度改革使国民储蓄率与居民最终消费支出都有所增加;最后,北欧国家实际GDP增长率与社保支出水平增长率负相关,社保制度改革成功控制了社保支出水平上升趋势,并实现了经济的稳定增长。这些结论充分体现出北欧社保制度的改革减少了公共赤字水平、避免了税收负担的加重、稳定了经济发展。
[Abstract]:As a result of the economic crisis in the 1980s, the five Nordic countries experienced problems such as declining economic growth and rising unemployment. Their high welfare systems faced severe challenges. In the 1990s, the Nordic countries began to reform the welfare system. The effect of the reforms was impressive, with the five Nordic countries maintaining steady growth and high employment even at a time when the European Union's sovereign debt crisis was acute. This paper analyzes the economic effects of social security system reform in Nordic countries from three aspects of labor employment, savings and consumption, and macroeconomic growth. The main conclusions are as follows: first, the reform in 1990s. The unemployment rate fell and remained at a relatively low level, and the average annual working hours of the Swedish and Danish labour force were once on the rise; Secondly, except Denmark, the level of social security expenditure in Nordic countries is negatively correlated with the national savings rate and the final consumption expenditure of residents, and the reform of social security system increases both the national savings rate and the final consumption expenditure of residents. Finally, there is a negative correlation between the real GDP growth rate and the social security expenditure level growth rate in the Nordic countries. The social security system reform has successfully controlled the rising trend of social security expenditure level and realized the steady growth of the economy. These conclusions fully reflect that the reform of social security system in northern Europe has reduced the level of public deficit, avoided the increase of tax burden, and stabilized the economic development.
【作者单位】：河北大学管理学院;
【分类号】：D753;D57

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