乌克兰危机:多维视野下的深层透视

发布时间：2019-01-05 16:49

【摘要】：乌克兰危机是苏联解体后欧亚地区转型发展和欧洲安全体系演变的重大事件,不仅反映了乌克兰国内的重重矛盾,也折射出"后金融危机时代"国际战略格局和大国关系变化的复杂光谱。从制度转型的角度看,乌克兰危机是政治失范导致社会失序的重要标本,20多年的社会转型困局加剧了乌社会既有的历史、宗教和文化分野,而这些矛盾在经济发展遇阻和民主政治危机的共同作用下,最终演化为乌克兰国家认同的危机。从地缘政治的角度看,俄、美、欧在乌克兰有着各自的地缘政治目标,它们之间的大博弈使欧洲有重蹈第一次世界大战后"20年危机"覆辙的危险。从国际秩序的角度看,尽管俄罗斯以强力方式取得了克里米亚,但不可能颠覆西方主导的现行国际秩序,俄罗斯有可能在美欧制裁之下遭受诸多损失。从帝国研究的角度看,苏联解体的"后遗症"并未痊愈,欧亚地区的安全和发展还面临诸多挑战。俄罗斯所倡导的"欧亚一体化"能否成功,关键要看其发展模式是否具有吸引力,是否能为其他成员国提供资金、技术、市场、发展空间等公共产品。
[Abstract]:The crisis in Ukraine is a major event in the transformation and development of the Eurasian region and the evolution of the European security system after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. It also reflects the complex spectrum of the change of the international strategic pattern and the great power relations in the post-financial crisis era. From the point of view of institutional transformation, the crisis in Ukraine is an important specimen of the social disorder caused by the political anomie. The social transformation difficulties of more than 20 years have aggravated the historical, religious and cultural divisions existing in the Ukrainian society. These contradictions, under the joint action of economic development and democratic political crisis, eventually evolved into a crisis of Ukraine's national identity. From a geopolitical point of view, Russia, the United States and Europe have their own geopolitical goals in Ukraine, and the great game between them threatens Europe to repeat the "20-year crisis" after the first World War. From the point of view of the international order, although Russia obtained Crimea in a forceful way, it could not subvert the existing international order dominated by the West, and Russia could suffer many losses under the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe. From the perspective of imperial studies, the "sequelae" of the disintegration of the Soviet Union did not heal, and the security and development of Eurasia still faced many challenges. The success of the "Eurasian integration" advocated by Russia depends on whether its development model is attractive and whether it can provide other member countries with funds, technology, markets, development space and other public goods.
【作者单位】：中国现代国际关系研究院俄罗斯研究所;
【分类号】：D751.13

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