泰国:脆弱民主制的灾难性后果——基于SPS震荡波理论的解析
发布时间：2019-03-06 07:30
【摘要】：泰国政局的持续动荡表明先天不足的泰式民主已经走入死胡同。泰国政治危机的根源是以他信为代表的新兴政治家族与长期"统而不治"的泰国王室的权力博弈。泰国近十年来的政局动荡表现为议会内的政党之争、红黄(衫军)的街头对抗等多种形式。本文以SPS震荡波理论为分析框架,发现S波因子和P波因子在泰国危机中都是核心表现要素,尤其是P波因子在2013年12月以来的社会动荡中得到准确的诠释。这些S波因子和P波因子交织在一起,互相影响、交互作用,形成了上下颠簸、左右摇荡的震荡传导,使泰国的社会危机和政治动荡愈演愈烈,造成了前所未有的困境。
[Abstract]:The continuing political turmoil in Thailand shows that Thai-style democracy, which is inherently inadequate, has come to a dead end. The root of Thailand's political crisis is the power game between the new political family represented by Thaksin and the long-term "unified but not ruling" Thai royal family. Thailand's political turmoil over the past decade has taken the form of political parties in parliament, red-yellow street confrontations and other forms. Based on SPS's shock wave theory, this paper finds that both S-wave factor and P-wave factor are the core factors in the Thai crisis, especially the P-wave factor has been accurately interpreted in the social unrest since December 2013. These S-wave factors and P-wave factors interweave together, mutual influence, interaction, form the ups and downs, left and right swaying vibration conduction, make Thailand's social crisis and political instability more and more intense, resulting in unprecedented difficulties.
【作者单位】： 上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重大计划重点项目“面向非常规突发事件应急管理的风险理论与方法”的阶段性成果,项目批准号:91324202
【分类号】：D733.6
，
本文编号：2435322
[Abstract]:The continuing political turmoil in Thailand shows that Thai-style democracy, which is inherently inadequate, has come to a dead end. The root of Thailand's political crisis is the power game between the new political family represented by Thaksin and the long-term "unified but not ruling" Thai royal family. Thailand's political turmoil over the past decade has taken the form of political parties in parliament, red-yellow street confrontations and other forms. Based on SPS's shock wave theory, this paper finds that both S-wave factor and P-wave factor are the core factors in the Thai crisis, especially the P-wave factor has been accurately interpreted in the social unrest since December 2013. These S-wave factors and P-wave factors interweave together, mutual influence, interaction, form the ups and downs, left and right swaying vibration conduction, make Thailand's social crisis and political instability more and more intense, resulting in unprecedented difficulties.
【作者单位】： 上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重大计划重点项目“面向非常规突发事件应急管理的风险理论与方法”的阶段性成果,项目批准号:91324202
【分类号】：D733.6
，
本文编号：2435322
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