能源博弈下的苏格兰公投及英国相关政策走向

发布时间：2019-03-22 07:14

【摘要】：现实利益失衡引发的多方争端导致苏格兰采取公投的方式表达政治诉求,该事件的背后隐藏着联合王国各政党围绕地缘政治和各方权益展开的激烈"博弈",危机中更凸显能源的筹码作用。苏格兰是否独立,在于是否能实现民族利益的最大化。苏格兰民族党倚仗北海油田和境内非常规油气以及新能源的巨大优势力主独立,而半数以上的苏格兰人选择留在英国,一是基于"不独立将获得更多更大权力"的承诺,二是对于"富裕小国"的蓝图持有疑虑。后公投时期英国政府如何实现此前的放权承诺,2015年英国财年预算能否如愿刺激北海油田投资,有效提振经济,这些都将左右本年度的大选走向。可以认为,公投事件已为未来英国格局埋下伏笔,对相关政策的影响正逐步浮出水面。
[Abstract]:The multi-party dispute caused by the imbalance of real interests led Scotland to take the form of a referendum to express its political appeal. Behind the incident lies the fierce "game" of political parties in the United Kingdom around geopolitics and rights and interests of all parties. The crisis highlights the leverage of energy. The independence of Scotland lies in the maximization of national interests. The SNP relies on the huge advantages of the North Sea oil fields and unconventional oil and gas, as well as new energy sources, for independence, while more than half of Scots choose to stay in the UK, one based on the promise that "independence will gain more and more power." The second is to have doubts about the blueprint of a "small rich country." How the government will deliver on its previous devolved commitments during the post-referendum period, and whether the 2015 budget will boost investment in the North Sea oil fields and boost the economy effectively, will shape the course of this year's election. It can be said that the referendum has laid the groundwork for the future of the UK, and the impact on the relevant policy is gradually surfacing.
【作者单位】：西南石油大学马克思主义学院;
【基金】：四川社会科学重点研究基地四川石油天然气发展研究中心课题“能源关系视角下的苏格兰公投以及对我国和谐油气关系的借鉴意义”(川油气科SKB15-11)阶段性成果
【分类号】：D756.1

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