朝鲜半岛局势的前景预测及中国的对策
发布时间：2019-06-11 19:42
【摘要】：朝鲜半岛局势作为东北亚问题的核心，一直是国际社会关注的问题，也是当今世界最敏感、最复杂的热点问题，可以说是“安全困境”的经典实例。朝鲜半岛局势的发展前景不但关乎东北亚、亚太、乃至世界的和平与稳定，而且与中国的安全、稳定与发展都有重要的影响。 半个多世纪以来，解决朝鲜半岛问题的方案各式各样，大致分为均势安全理论模式、集体安全理论模式和合作安全理论模式三种。冷战时期的朝鲜半岛局势的确是一种均势安全模式，尽管均势本身就是极不稳定的，但冷战时期的朝鲜半岛还是在这种均势下保持了对峙下的和平与稳定状态，维护了东北亚各国的安全。可冷战结束后，朝鲜半岛的这种均势格局已被打破，围绕朝鲜半岛的国际关系已发生很大的变化，均势安全理论已较明显地不适合朝鲜半岛局势的发展，但由于美国抱着冷战思维不放，仍然想在朝鲜半岛搞均势，这是不利于朝鲜半岛局势的发展的。集体安全理论是针对均势安全理论而设计出来的，它为人类描述了促进国际合作、避免冲突、消除战争的美好前景，东北亚各国也有意围绕朝鲜半岛局势建立集体安全机制，但由于各国的设想和态度不尽相同，再加上东北亚地区在冷战时期形成的意识形态对立、经济发展水平的差异等也使集体安全理论难以在朝鲜半岛实施，只能是人们的美好理想。合作安全理论则是冷战后随着新安全观念的产生而出现的一种新的安全理论，它是以合作求安全，且这种安全是一种综合 安全。它所讲的合作既不同于均势安全中的合作，也 不同于集体安全中的合作，，而是一种新型的合作关 系。当然它所指的安全也不同于传统的军事安全，而 是一种综合安全。获取安全的途径也不同于均势安全 和集体安全，即以谈判协商而不是以武力或武力威 胁。这种安全理论不但可以包容朝鲜半岛的各种差 异，还可以平衡大国在朝鲜半岛的利益，既可以保持 东北亚地区的和平、稳定与发展，也有利于朝鲜半岛 的和平统一。 但是，由于朝鲜半岛处于美、日、俄、中四国利 益的结合部，四国在朝鲜半岛都有着重要的利益，四 国对朝鲜半岛的政策不论是在冷战时期还是在冷战 后都对朝鲜半岛局势的发展有重要影响。冷战后美国 作为唯一的超级大国，其对朝鲜半岛政策的根本目标 是想把持朝鲜半岛事务的主导权，牵制其他大国，以 维护美国的全球霸权，所以，均势政策是美国对朝鲜 半岛政策的主流，尽管它不适合朝鲜半岛局势的现 状，也不利朝鲜半岛的和平统一。日本在冷战后把追 求政治大国作为其对外政策的核心，在朝鲜半岛问题 上也是想尽可能大地发挥影响，但日本对朝鲜半岛局 势的影响是有限的，因为日本在对待历史问题及处理 与美国的同盟关系问题上难以取得周边国家的信任。 俄罗斯在朝鲜半岛的影响虽不能和前苏联相比，且一 度由于实力下降和外交政策的失误造成其对朝鲜半 岛问题的影响下降，但随着俄对外政策的调整和实力 的恢复，俄仍然想在朝鲜半岛问题上发挥影响，且已 经取得了一定进展。特别是随着俄与朝鲜传统友好关 系的恢复，俄对朝鲜半岛局势的影响己十分明显。但 是，俄对朝鲜半岛的政策己与前苏联明显不同，合作 安全己在俄对朝鲜半岛的政策中占主流。中国一直对 2 朝鲜半岛局势有着重要的影响，朝鲜半岛也对中国的 政治、经济、安全、文化等方面都有重要影响，所以， 正在改革开放的中国把朝鲜半岛局势的稳定作对朝 鲜半岛政策的前提，且用合作安全理论为朝鲜半岛的 和平统一营造有利的外部环境，中国一直支持朝鲜半 岛的自主、和平统一。 在大国影响下的朝鲜半岛局势，既不可能用武力 统一的模式，也不可能用德国式的吸收式的统一，似 乎战后走向统一的所有统一模式在朝鲜半岛都有这 样或那样的不适用性，朝鲜半岛的和平统一似乎也只 能用朝鲜半岛的模式，即不局限于对统一方式的争 执，而是淡化意识形态差异，化解民族分裂的怨恨， 面对分裂的现实，增进了解，扩大交流，建立信任， 同时，促进周边大国的安全合作，创造达宜的外部环 境。由于朝鲜半岛特殊的地理位置及复杂的国际关 系，朝鲜半岛的和平统一是不可能一蹦而就的，而是 需要一个漫长的过程。在这个过程中朝鲜半岛局势有 许多打破现状的可能，尽管有的可能性很小，但其造 成的影响却是深远而巨大的，需引起有关各方的重 视。 朝鲜半岛不论过去、现在还是将来，对中国安全 的影响都是巨大的，特别是在冷战后的今天，经济安 全在各国安全中的份量明显增加，加入WTO后的中 国更需要重视经济安全，同时，中国传统传统安全中 的一些问题也令人担忧，而朝鲜半岛不论对中国的经 济安全、政治安全还
[Abstract]:As the core of the North-East Asia, the situation on the Korean peninsula has always been a matter of international concern, and it is the most sensitive and complex hot issue in the world, and it can be said to be a classic example of the "security dilemma". The development of the situation in the Korean Peninsula is not only about the peace and stability of Northeast Asia, the Asia-Pacific and the world, but also has an important impact on the security, stability and development of China. For more than half a century, a variety of programmes to address the Korean Peninsula issue are broadly divided into the model of the average potential security, the mode of collective security, and the combination of the theory of collective security and the theory of collective security. The situation of the Korean peninsula during the Cold War is indeed a kind of average security model, while the situation of the Korean peninsula during the cold war is very unstable, but on the Korean peninsula during the cold war, the situation of peace and stability under the confrontation is maintained, and the maintenance is maintained. After the end of the cold war, the uniform pattern of the Korean peninsula has been broken, and the international relations around the Korean peninsula have changed greatly, and the theory of average potential security has obviously not been suitable for the development of the situation on the Korean peninsula, but because of the beauty of the United States, The state holds the cold war thinking and still wants to make a balance on the Korean peninsula, which is not conducive to the DPRK The development of the situation in the fresh peninsula is the development of the situation in the fresh peninsula. The theory of collective security is designed for the theory of the balance of power. It describes the prospects of promoting international cooperation, avoiding conflicts and eliminating the war, and the countries of the Northeast Asia are also interested in the Korean Peninsula. However, because of the different ideas and attitudes of the countries, the differences between the ideology and the economic development level formed in the Northeast Asia during the Cold War have also made the collective security theory difficult to implement on the Korean peninsula, and only The theory of cooperative security is a new security theory that emerged with the emergence of the new security concept after the cold war, and it is a new security theory that emerged with the development of the new security concept after the cold war, and this Security is a comprehensive Security. The cooperation it says is different from the average. safety The cooperation in China is different from that of the collective Cooperation in security, and It's a new type of cooperation. Department of course. Of course, the security referred to is different from that of the traditional army. Shi An It's all, and it's a kind of comprehensive security. . Access to safety is also different from the average security and collective security, in the context of negotiations, rather than by force or force Li Wei The threat. This kind of security theory can not only be contained in the direction The various differences in the fresh peninsula may also be flat The interests of the major Powers on the Korean peninsula can be maintained The Peace, Stability and Development of Northeast Asia It's a good show. The peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsula. however, since that Korean peninsula is in the United state, the joint part of the four-nation-four-four-four-four-four-year-old in that case of the Korean peninsula, an important benefit, four the policy of the State on the Korean peninsula in that cold-war era, The situation in the Korean peninsula after the cold war The development has an important impact. The United States after the cold war as the only superpower The fundamental objective of its policy on the Korean peninsula It's the lead that wants to hold on the Korean peninsula. The right to hold other big powers in order to preserve the beauty of the United States The global hegemony of the country is, therefore, the US-to-North Korea The mainstream of the policy of the peninsula, though it is not suitable for the DPRK Fresh Peninsula Bureau The current shape of the potential, also the negative. The peaceful reunification of the fresh peninsula. Japan followed after the cold war Seeking the political power as the core of its foreign policy, in the DPRK fresh The problem of the peninsula is also to be as great as possible To play an impact, but Japan's contribution to the Korean Peninsula The effect of the potential is limited, as Japan is dealing with historical problems and handling It is difficult to take advantage of the alliance with the United States The trust of neighboring countries. Russia on the Korean peninsula, Can't compare with the former Soviet Union, and one The degree of strength is due to a decline in strength and a mistake in foreign policy. It's for North Korea. The effect of the island problem has declined, but as the Russian foreign countries The adjustment of the policy and the restoration of power, Russia I would still like to play an impact on the Korean peninsula and have is obtained Some progress, especially as Russia and the DPRK the recovery of the fresh traditional friendly and close system, russia The impact on the situation on the Korean peninsula has been very clear. Yes, Russia's policy on the Korean peninsula has been clearly not in line with the former Soviet Union in conjunction with, in The security has been in Russia for half a year. island Mainstream in the policy. China has always been 2 The situation in the Korean peninsula is of great importance The impact of the Korean peninsula on China Political, economic, security, culture, etc. There's an important effect on the face, so, it's to change China's stability against the situation in the Korean peninsula against the opening of the leather The premise of the policy of the fresh peninsula, and it is safe to use the cooperation The theory is the peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsula to build a favorable external environment, China has always supported North Korea and a half The autonomous and peaceful reunification of the island. under the influence of a great powe
【学位授予单位】：中国人民解放军外国语学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2002
【分类号】：D815
[Abstract]:As the core of the North-East Asia, the situation on the Korean peninsula has always been a matter of international concern, and it is the most sensitive and complex hot issue in the world, and it can be said to be a classic example of the "security dilemma". The development of the situation in the Korean Peninsula is not only about the peace and stability of Northeast Asia, the Asia-Pacific and the world, but also has an important impact on the security, stability and development of China. For more than half a century, a variety of programmes to address the Korean Peninsula issue are broadly divided into the model of the average potential security, the mode of collective security, and the combination of the theory of collective security and the theory of collective security. The situation of the Korean peninsula during the Cold War is indeed a kind of average security model, while the situation of the Korean peninsula during the cold war is very unstable, but on the Korean peninsula during the cold war, the situation of peace and stability under the confrontation is maintained, and the maintenance is maintained. After the end of the cold war, the uniform pattern of the Korean peninsula has been broken, and the international relations around the Korean peninsula have changed greatly, and the theory of average potential security has obviously not been suitable for the development of the situation on the Korean peninsula, but because of the beauty of the United States, The state holds the cold war thinking and still wants to make a balance on the Korean peninsula, which is not conducive to the DPRK The development of the situation in the fresh peninsula is the development of the situation in the fresh peninsula. The theory of collective security is designed for the theory of the balance of power. It describes the prospects of promoting international cooperation, avoiding conflicts and eliminating the war, and the countries of the Northeast Asia are also interested in the Korean Peninsula. However, because of the different ideas and attitudes of the countries, the differences between the ideology and the economic development level formed in the Northeast Asia during the Cold War have also made the collective security theory difficult to implement on the Korean peninsula, and only The theory of cooperative security is a new security theory that emerged with the emergence of the new security concept after the cold war, and it is a new security theory that emerged with the development of the new security concept after the cold war, and this Security is a comprehensive Security. The cooperation it says is different from the average. safety The cooperation in China is different from that of the collective Cooperation in security, and It's a new type of cooperation. Department of course. Of course, the security referred to is different from that of the traditional army. Shi An It's all, and it's a kind of comprehensive security. . Access to safety is also different from the average security and collective security, in the context of negotiations, rather than by force or force Li Wei The threat. This kind of security theory can not only be contained in the direction The various differences in the fresh peninsula may also be flat The interests of the major Powers on the Korean peninsula can be maintained The Peace, Stability and Development of Northeast Asia It's a good show. The peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsula. however, since that Korean peninsula is in the United state, the joint part of the four-nation-four-four-four-four-four-year-old in that case of the Korean peninsula, an important benefit, four the policy of the State on the Korean peninsula in that cold-war era, The situation in the Korean peninsula after the cold war The development has an important impact. The United States after the cold war as the only superpower The fundamental objective of its policy on the Korean peninsula It's the lead that wants to hold on the Korean peninsula. The right to hold other big powers in order to preserve the beauty of the United States The global hegemony of the country is, therefore, the US-to-North Korea The mainstream of the policy of the peninsula, though it is not suitable for the DPRK Fresh Peninsula Bureau The current shape of the potential, also the negative. The peaceful reunification of the fresh peninsula. Japan followed after the cold war Seeking the political power as the core of its foreign policy, in the DPRK fresh The problem of the peninsula is also to be as great as possible To play an impact, but Japan's contribution to the Korean Peninsula The effect of the potential is limited, as Japan is dealing with historical problems and handling It is difficult to take advantage of the alliance with the United States The trust of neighboring countries. Russia on the Korean peninsula, Can't compare with the former Soviet Union, and one The degree of strength is due to a decline in strength and a mistake in foreign policy. It's for North Korea. The effect of the island problem has declined, but as the Russian foreign countries The adjustment of the policy and the restoration of power, Russia I would still like to play an impact on the Korean peninsula and have is obtained Some progress, especially as Russia and the DPRK the recovery of the fresh traditional friendly and close system, russia The impact on the situation on the Korean peninsula has been very clear. Yes, Russia's policy on the Korean peninsula has been clearly not in line with the former Soviet Union in conjunction with, in The security has been in Russia for half a year. island Mainstream in the policy. China has always been 2 The situation in the Korean peninsula is of great importance The impact of the Korean peninsula on China Political, economic, security, culture, etc. There's an important effect on the face, so, it's to change China's stability against the situation in the Korean peninsula against the opening of the leather The premise of the policy of the fresh peninsula, and it is safe to use the cooperation The theory is the peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsula to build a favorable external environment, China has always supported North Korea and a half The autonomous and peaceful reunification of the island. under the influence of a great powe
【学位授予单位】：中国人民解放军外国语学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2002
【分类号】：D815
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