政治制度对巴基斯坦油价波动和PPI的影响
发布时间：2021-04-30 03:33
本论文旨在研究巴基斯坦政治区制的改变对石油价格波动和生产者价格指数的影响。本文基于考察期内巴基斯坦19年的相关数据,首先运用相关分析和回归分析等统计手段分析了变量之间存在的数量关系和特征,进一步使用GARCH模型进行了相关预测。结论证实了国际政治对石油价格波动具有非常关键的影响,油价波动对宏观经济变量,如工资,CPI指数,购买意愿和实际支付,预算赤字和经济拉动,通货膨胀率以及其他宏观经济因素都有显著性的影响。本研究结果进一步表明,就巴基斯坦而言,政治稳定比石油价格波动对生产者价格指数的影响更大,政治稳定性与生产者价格指数之间存在显著的负相关关系。研究还发现,对于巴基斯坦而言,石油价格波动对生产者价格指数的影响并不如预期那样显著。因此,巴基斯坦应该考虑其他地缘政治因素来适应油价的波动,应尽量减少政治干预。巴基斯坦和其他相似发展中国家应该充分考虑石油价格波动与政治区位的互动影响,这对更有效地管理国内经济事务至关重要。
【文章来源】：山西财经大学山西省
【文章页数】：68 页
【学位级别】：硕士
【文章目录】：
摘要
ABSTRACT
CHAPTER1 INTRODUCTION
Objectives of the study
Hypothesis of the Study
CHAPTER2 LITERATURE
2.1 Importance of Oil
2.2 Oil and International Politics
2.3 Oil Price and different Economies(Examples)
2.3.1 Oil and Venezuela
2.3.2 Oil and America
2.3.3 Oil and China
2.4 Oil Price and PPI
2.5 Oil prices and the economics of resource exhaustion
2.5.1 Oil production in the United States,1859-2010
2.5.2 World oil production,1973-2010
2.6 Oil Price and Geopolitics
2.6.1 Falling Oil Prices and Domestic Instability
2.6.2 American Policy in the Middle East and Falling Oil Prices
2.7 Oil Prices Trend in Pakistan
CHAPTER3:RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Research Philosophy
3.3 Research Approach
3.4 Research Design
3.5 Type of Investigation
3.6 Research Variables
3.7 Building a Time Series Model
3.8 Presentation of Model
3.9 Data Collection Method
3.10 Data Analysis Technique
3.11 Research Limitation
CHAPTER4:ANALYSIS
4.1.Introduction
4.2.Correlation Analysis
4.3.Descriptive Statistics
4.4.Unit root analysis
4.5.Regression Analysis
4.6.GARCH Model
4.7.Results of GARCH Model Tests
4.7.1 GARCH Model-1
4.7.2 GARCH Model-2
4.7.3 GARCH Model-3
CHAPTER5:RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Findings and Discussion
CHAPTER6:RECOMMENDATIONS and LIMITATIONS
6.1.Recommendations
6.2.Limitations of the Study
REFERENCES
APPENDIX
Historical Data
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
本文编号：3168753
【文章来源】：山西财经大学山西省
【文章页数】：68 页
【学位级别】：硕士
【文章目录】：
摘要
ABSTRACT
CHAPTER1 INTRODUCTION
Objectives of the study
Hypothesis of the Study
CHAPTER2 LITERATURE
2.1 Importance of Oil
2.2 Oil and International Politics
2.3 Oil Price and different Economies(Examples)
2.3.1 Oil and Venezuela
2.3.2 Oil and America
2.3.3 Oil and China
2.4 Oil Price and PPI
2.5 Oil prices and the economics of resource exhaustion
2.5.1 Oil production in the United States,1859-2010
2.5.2 World oil production,1973-2010
2.6 Oil Price and Geopolitics
2.6.1 Falling Oil Prices and Domestic Instability
2.6.2 American Policy in the Middle East and Falling Oil Prices
2.7 Oil Prices Trend in Pakistan
CHAPTER3:RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Research Philosophy
3.3 Research Approach
3.4 Research Design
3.5 Type of Investigation
3.6 Research Variables
3.7 Building a Time Series Model
3.8 Presentation of Model
3.9 Data Collection Method
3.10 Data Analysis Technique
3.11 Research Limitation
CHAPTER4:ANALYSIS
4.1.Introduction
4.2.Correlation Analysis
4.3.Descriptive Statistics
4.4.Unit root analysis
4.5.Regression Analysis
4.6.GARCH Model
4.7.Results of GARCH Model Tests
4.7.1 GARCH Model-1
4.7.2 GARCH Model-2
4.7.3 GARCH Model-3
CHAPTER5:RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Findings and Discussion
CHAPTER6:RECOMMENDATIONS and LIMITATIONS
6.1.Recommendations
6.2.Limitations of the Study
REFERENCES
APPENDIX
Historical Data
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
本文编号：3168753
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