从人口抚养比到消费抚养比的探索

发布时间：2017-12-28 12:06

本文关键词：从人口抚养比到消费抚养比的探索　出处：《江西财经大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：人口抚养比作为反映人口年龄结构对社会经济发展影响的一个重要指标,自被提出以来就一直得到广泛使用并沿用至今。但随着学者的深入研究,发现该指标存在不少缺陷。其中公认的有三个方面:第一,对少儿,劳动力以及老年的人口规模的确定不合理,以至于过度夸大社会抚养负担;第二,忽略产业结构对人口抚养比的影响。三次产业人均产出不同,其劳动力的抚养能力也不同;第三,各个年龄段的人的消费水平不同,单纯以各年龄组的人口数量之比衡量社会负担不太合理。对于这些缺陷,国内外学者也提出了相应的改进方案。一是提出"标准消费人口",分别将少儿和老年人的消费按一定比例折算成一个劳动力的消费;二是提出"有效劳动力",对比产业间不同人均产出,重新测算劳动人口。笔者认为抚养负担更确切地应该表现为一个国家或地区中不从事生产的群体所消耗的资源与生产性人员所消耗的资源之比(这部分资源可视为劳动力为了生产所投入的),而不只是单纯地测度少儿人口与老年人口占劳动年龄人口的比重。因为对劳动力的消费支出实际上可视为一种投入,正是有这种投入,才有劳动力的生产成果即产出;而消费性群体,如学生、婴幼儿以及老年人则是纯消费性群体,他们的消费支出不会带来产出,所以这些群体的消费才是一个社会或地区所真正需要负担的。人口抚养比指标本是为了衡量社会的抚养负担,但实际中由于各年龄组消费水平的不同以及三次产业单位劳动力产出差异导致传统的人口抚养比指标衡量社会抚养负担的精确性大打折扣。因此笔者认为从消费资源的角度重新估量社会抚养负担会更合理。计算消费抚养比有两个关键步骤。第一步,先估计出三次产业的有效劳动力。以第一产业的平均劳动力为1个有效劳动力,第二、第三产业的劳动力按照其人均劳动力产出与第一产业的人均劳动力产出比换算成有效劳动力;第二步,计算各年龄组的消费换算系数。以劳动力组的人均消费支出为1个单位的标准消费支出,以学生组和非劳动力组的人均消费支出与劳动力组的人均消费支出之比为各自的消费换算系数(即学生组或非劳动力组的人均标准消费支出)。在实证分析中,笔者利用江西省新建县和南昌县家庭住户的抽样调查数据计算出城镇消费抚养比和农村消费抚养比。结果显示:无论是城镇还是农村,各项消费抚养比均低于传统的人口抚养比,总抚养比更是相差20个百分点左右。也就是说,实际中城镇或农村居民并没有承担传统抚养比所表现出的那么重的抚养负担。其中,城镇的各项消费抚养比均大于农村,特别是在负担非劳动力(主体为65岁以上老人)上。因此,城镇居民面临比农村居民更大的养老压力。本文还利用2014年度江西省公共财政支出中教育支出的细项,结合政府实行的"九年义务教育"政策,测度出政府在教育上的实物社会转移支出为居民减轻了多少负担。结果表明,政府对居民的实物社会转移(教育支出部分)支出为居民减轻了抚养负担,其中农村居民在政府的教育方面的实物社会转移中获得更大的社会福利。本文最后根据全文分析结果进行总结,并针对提高消费抚养比的精确度和减轻居民抚养负担两个方面提出相关建议与措施。在提高抚养比的精确度上,主要从提高对居民分组的准确性,有效劳动力估计的合理性以及消费换算系数确定的精准度这三个方面入手;在减轻居民抚养负担的措施方面主要有产业升级,提倡传统的居家养老模式以及政府根据城镇与农村居民承担的不同抚养压力提供适当社会保障。
[Abstract]:Population dependency ratio, as an important index reflecting the impact of population age structure on social and economic development, has been widely used since its being put forward and has been used till now. However, with the in-depth study of the scholars, it has been found that there are many defects in this index. Three aspects are generally recognized: first, the determination of the size of the children, the labor force and the elderly is unreasonable, so that the social burden of social support is overstated. Second, the influence of industrial structure on population dependency ratio is ignored. The output per capita of the three industries is different, and the labor force's ability of raising is also different. Third, the consumption level of people of all ages is different. It's not reasonable to weigh the social burden simply by the ratio of the population of each age group. To these defects, the domestic and foreign scholars also put forward the corresponding improvement plan. The first is to put forward the "standard consumption population", which is to convert the consumption of children and the elderly into a labor force consumption at a certain rate. The two is to propose effective labor force, comparing the output per capita between different industries, and re calculating the labor force. The author thinks that the dependency burden more accurately should behave as resources and production personnel consumption produced not engaged in a country or region in the group of resource consumption ratio (which can be regarded as part of the resources for the production of the labor input), and is not simply to measure children's working age population and elderly population the proportion of the population. Because of labor spending actually can be regarded as a kind of investment, it is the only labor input, production output and consumption; groups such as students, infants and the elderly is pure consumer groups, consumer spending will not bring their output, so these consumer groups is a society or region needs burden. The index of population dependency ratio is used to measure the burden of social support, but in fact, the accuracy of traditional population dependency ratio measurement is greatly reduced because of the difference in consumption level of each age group and the difference of labor output between three industrial units. Therefore, I think it will be more reasonable to reassess the burden of social support from the perspective of consumption resources. There are two key steps in calculating the consumption dependency ratio. The first step is to estimate the effective labor force of the three industries. The average labor force in the first industry is 1 effective labor force, and the labor force in the second and third industries is converted into effective labor force according to the per capita labor output and the per capita labor output ratio of the primary industry. The second step is to calculate the consumption conversion coefficient of each age group. In labor group per capita consumption expenditure of 1 units of the standard consumption expenditure, per capita consumption expenditure to the students group and the non labor group and labor group of per capita consumption expenditure ratio of consumption conversion factor (i.e. each student group or non labor group per capita consumption expenditure standard). In the empirical analysis, the author calculates the consumption dependency ratio and the rural consumption dependency ratio by using the sampling survey data of family households in Xinjian County and Nanchang County, Jiangxi province. The results show that both the urban and rural areas, the consumption dependency ratio is lower than the traditional population dependency ratio, the total dependency ratio is about 20 percentage points. In other words, the actual urban or rural residents do not bear the burden of raising the traditional dependency ratio. Among them, the urban consumption and maintenance ratio is greater than that in the rural areas, especially in the non labor force (the main body is older than 65 years old). Therefore, the urban residents face greater pressure on the elderly than the rural residents. Based on the detailed education expenditure in Jiangxi's public expenditure in 2014, combined with the nine year compulsory education policy implemented by the government, this paper measures how much the government's physical social transfer expenditure on education has alleviated for the residents. The results show that the government's expenditure on the physical social transfer (education expenditure) of the residents has reduced the burden of the residents, and the rural residents get greater social benefits in the physical transfer of the government's education. Finally, according to the results of the full text analysis, we sum up two suggestions and measures to improve the accuracy of consumption dependency ratio and reduce the burden of residents. To improve the accuracy of dependency ratio, mainly from the increased accuracy of residents groups, determine the effective labor estimates the rationality and accuracy of the conversion coefficient of consumption of these three aspects; in the aspect of reducing residents of dependency burden are the main measures to promote industrial upgrading, the traditional family endowment pattern and government according to different towns and raising pressure rural residents bear the appropriate social security.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F126.1;C924.2

【相似文献】