中国人口实际与理想的生育年龄:1994—201

发布时间：2018-01-02 01:16

本文关键词：中国人口实际与理想的生育年龄:1994—201　出处：《人口与发展》2016年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：人们的生育行为总是与年龄及时间因素存在着特定联系。借助横断历史元分析方法对相关文献进行了梳理、分析,并结合国家统计局公布的数据,拟合出1994—2012年中国人口实际和理想生育年龄关系变化趋势。研究发现:实际生育年龄呈现显著增长趋势,初育年龄从1995年的23.49岁上升到2012年的25.78岁,再育年龄从26.73岁上升到29.61岁;理想生育年龄相对较为稳定,理想初育年龄保持在25.30岁左右,理想再育年龄维持在28.40岁左右,平均理想二胎间隔为3.10年;城市人口无论是初育年龄还是再育年龄,均是实际生育年龄显著大于理想生育年龄;农村人口实际初育年龄显著小于理想初育年龄,再育年龄经历了由"实际小于理想"到"实际大于理想"的转变。这些发现为认识生育意愿和生育水平在中国的变化趋势提供了有效的实证依据。
[Abstract]:People's fertility behavior is always related to age and time factors. With the help of a specific link is transverse historical element analysis method are summarized, on the analysis of related literature, combined with the National Bureau of statistics released data, fitting from 1994 to 2012 China actual and ideal population of childbearing age relationship trend. It is found that the actual birth age significantly the growth trend, the age of first birth of 23.49 years from 1995 to 2012 increased by 25.78, and was increased in age from 26.73 to 29.61 years old; the ideal of childbearing age is relatively stable, the ideal age of first birth remained at about 25.30 years old, and ideal of childbearing age maintained at 28.40 years old, the average child ideal interval of 3.10 years; city population regardless of the age of first birth and fertility age are significantly greater than the actual age of childbearing age ideal rural population; the actual age of first birth was significantly less than the ideal age of first birth, The age of rearing has changed from "reality less than ideal" to "reality is greater than ideal". These findings provide effective evidence for understanding the trend of childbearing willingness and fertility level in China.

【作者单位】：天津社会科学院社会治理与公共政策研究中心社会学研究所;中央财经大学社会学系;
【基金】：国家社科基金(编号:15CRK008) 北京青年英才计划(项目号:YETP0975) 天津社会科学院院重点课题(项目号:16YZD-05) 中央财经大学社会发展学院学科推进计划支持
【分类号】：C924.21
【正文快照】： 1引言生育同时兼有“三维性”:数量、时间和性别(顾宝昌,1992)。生育数量和性别长期受到广泛高度关注,生育时间则少有涉及,由此导致我们对生育时间规律的认识明显落后于数量和性别。事实上,了解和掌握生育时间规律,有助于我们预测生育水平和生育模式(尹勤等,2006)。早育,世代

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