利益驱动的人口迁移动力学模拟

发布时间：2018-01-09 08:06

本文关键词：利益驱动的人口迁移动力学模拟　出处：《宁夏大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：迁移是社会系统叠加在自然环境或城市系统中最普遍的现象之一。在诸多影响城市人口迁移的因素中,自然因素、社会经济因素、政治因素、文化因素起到了主要的调控作用。在对很多城市人口迁移行为的定量分析结果中,研究者们发现城市人口随时间演化呈现幂律分布关系。本学位论文关注我国的城市人口迁移的动力学特征及其机制。从《中国统计年鉴》中选取31个省市的相关数据作为原始数据,并对这些数据进行统计实证分析,得到了城市人口随时间演化的关系。为了更深地研究城市人口迁移的动力学机制,我们建立了城市人口迁移演化模型。在所建立的模型中把城市格点化,并对每个格点的演化结果进行分析,结果显示了同样的幂律依赖关系。此外,还对城市人口的累积概率分布规律做了分析和对比。分析结果显示为城市迁移人口累积概率分布呈幂律,结果与实证结果相吻合。最后文章用网络结构图和结构熵来表征人口迁移演化过程。这些尝试,为我国的相关政策的制定以及人口-经济结构的合理布局提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:Migration is one of the most common phenomena of social system superimposed in natural environment or urban system. Among the factors affecting urban population migration, natural factors, social economic factors and political factors. Cultural factors play a major role in the regulation. In the quantitative analysis of the migration behavior of many cities, the researchers found that the urban population showed a power law distribution relationship with the evolution of the urban population over time. This dissertation focuses on the dynamic characteristics and mechanism of urban migration in China. 31 provinces and cities are selected as the original data from the Statistical Yearbook of China. The relationship between urban population and time evolution is obtained by statistical and empirical analysis of these data. In order to further study the dynamic mechanism of urban population migration, we establish the urban migration evolution model. In the established model, the urban lattice and the evolution results of each grid are analyzed. The results show the same power law dependence. In addition, the law of cumulative probability distribution of urban population is analyzed and compared. The result shows that the cumulative probability distribution of urban migration population is power law. The results are consistent with the empirical results. Finally, this paper uses the network structure map and structural entropy to characterize the evolution of population migration. These attempts. It provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of relevant policies and the rational distribution of population-economic structure in China.
【学位授予单位】：宁夏大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：C924.24

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