我国人口初婚风险影响因素及其变迁——基于CGSS2010的研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 12:26

本文关键词：我国人口初婚风险影响因素及其变迁——基于CGSS2010的研究　出处：《南方人口》2015年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：初婚是婚姻历程的起点,是大部分社会成员必然经历的重要人生事件之一。个体初婚事件的发生不仅由其个体条件所决定,也在很大程度上会受到家庭特征、社会变迁的影响。本研究将影响因素分成三个层面:个体层面(性别、受教育程度)、家庭层面(父母受教育程度)和社会层面(区域、城乡、迁移)。基于2010年中国综合社会调查(CGSS2010)数据,使用事件史分析方法,探讨了影响我国人口初婚风险的因素及影响因素的时代变迁。Kaplan-Meier方法显示,不同个体特征、家庭特征和社会特征的群体,其初婚过程表现出明显的过程性特征,并且对数秩检验表明各个层面的因素对初婚的影响都是非常显著的。出生队列的COX风险模型表明,个体层面中教育对初婚的推迟效应彰显;家庭层面中母亲受教育程度对子女初婚的影响逐渐突出,父亲受教育程度的影响力度变弱;社会层面中,区域间的差异对初婚的影响增加,农村和城市婚恋观相近,户口作用不再明显。
[Abstract]:The first marriage is the starting point of the marriage process and one of the important life events that most social members must experience. The occurrence of the individual first marriage event is not only determined by their individual conditions but also largely affected by the family characteristics. The impact of social change. This study divided the factors into three levels: individual level (gender, education level), family level (parents education level) and social level (region, urban and rural areas). Based on the data of 2010 China Comprehensive Social Survey (CGSS 2010), the method of event history analysis was used. This paper discusses the factors that influence the risk of first marriage and the change of time. Kaplan-Meier method shows that different individuals, families and social groups have different characteristics. The process of first marriage shows obvious process characteristics, and the logarithmic rank test shows that the influence of various factors on the first marriage is very significant. The COX risk model of birth cohort shows that. At the individual level, the delayed effect of education on first marriage is evident; At the family level, the influence of the mother's education level on the first marriage of the children is gradually prominent, and the influence of the father's education level is weaker. At the social level, the influence of regional differences on first marriage increased, rural and urban views on marriage and love were similar, and the role of hukou was no longer obvious.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学社会转型与社会管理协同创新中心;中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心;中国人民大学社会与人口学院;
【分类号】：C924.24
【正文快照】： 婚姻是男女两性合法缔结的一种形式,也是家庭能够存在的前提和基础。婚姻对人类社会的特殊意义在于,它不仅关系到整个社会是否健康、协调与可持续发展,而且也对每一个社会成员的生存质量、生活质量及生命质量产生重要影响(刘爽、郭志刚,1999)。在传统社会中,婚姻对于个人或是

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