生育意愿与生育行为的差异分析

发布时间：2018-02-05 19:21

本文关键词： 生育意愿生育行为生育数量生育性别比　出处：《华中科技大学》2011年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：以往关于生育意愿的研究颇多,却存在研究方法单一、研究视角宏观、研究内容片面等方面的局限。本文利用湖北省人口学会2010年课题“湖北省出生性别比偏高问题综合治理研究”课题组收集到的数据,从生育数量和生育性别两个维度,分析生育意愿和生育行为差异,进而阐释这种差异产生的影响因素。从分析生育意愿与生育行为的差异着手,准确把握人口生育意愿与生育行为的现状,有利于确定工作的重点,进而寻求解决问题的有效措施。调查结果显示,该地区居民平均意愿生育数量2.11个,实际平均生育1.74个子女;意愿生育性别比为116.8,实际生育性别比为162.4。从以上数据可以得到一个初步的判断,生育意愿和生育行为之间存在差异性,并由此提出两条假设。为了对假设进行验证,本文使用相关的变量,分别对35~45岁个体的实际生育数量和意愿生育数量、实际生育性别比和意愿生育性别比进行t检验。检验结果显示35~45岁的个体实际生育水平低于意愿生育水平,超过40%的个体并未完成他期望生育的数量,只有10%的个体超额完成期望生育的数量。35~45岁的调查对象实际生育性别比高于意愿生育性别比,具体表现在男孩具有优先出生权,在减少生育数量的时候会倾向于减少女孩的生育数量。在只能生育1个和允许生育2个孩子的情况下,实际生育性别比均高于意愿生育的性别比,高于正常值。以意愿与行为的差异类型为因变量,对差异的影响因素进行回归分析,结果显示年龄,户口,经济水平和性别偏好是影响生育意愿和生育行为差异的主要因素。除去以上因素,生育意愿本身的特点、社会因素和技术因素等也会对差异的产生造成一定的影响。
[Abstract]:In the past, there are many researches on fertility intention, but there is a single research method and a macro perspective. This paper makes use of the data collected by Hubei population Society in 2010, "Comprehensive Management of the problem of High birth Sex ratio in Hubei Province". From the two dimensions of fertility number and sex, this paper analyzes the difference of fertility intention and reproductive behavior, and then explains the influencing factors of the difference, and starts with the analysis of the difference between fertility intention and reproductive behavior. Accurately grasping the present situation of population fertility intention and reproductive behavior is helpful to determine the focus of work and to seek effective measures to solve the problem. The results show that the average number of willing children in this area is 2.11, and the actual average number of children is 1.74. The sex ratio of willingness to bear is 116.8, and the actual sex ratio of fertility is 162.4. From the above data, we can get a preliminary judgment, there is a difference between fertility intention and reproductive behavior. Two hypotheses are proposed. In order to verify the hypothesis, this paper uses the relevant variables to study the actual number of births and the number of willing births of 35 or 45 year old individuals. The actual sex ratio of fertility and the sex ratio of willing fertility were tested by t-test. The results showed that the actual fertility level of 35 ~ 45 years old individuals was lower than that of willing fertility level. More than 40% of the individuals did not achieve the number of children he expected to have, and only 10% of the individuals exceeded the number of expected births. The actual fertility sex ratio of the 45 year old respondents was higher than that of the willing fertility sex ratio. This is demonstrated by the fact that boys have the right to give priority to birth and tend to reduce the number of girls in the process of reducing the number of births, where only one child is allowed and two children are allowed. The actual sex ratio of fertility is higher than the sex ratio of willing to bear, which is higher than the normal value. Taking the type of difference between intention and behavior as dependent variable, regression analysis of the influencing factors of the difference is carried out, the result shows that age, household registration. Economic level and gender preference are the main factors that influence the difference of fertility intention and reproductive behavior. Social factors and technical factors will also have a certain impact on the differences.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C924.21

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