中国经济社会发展与生育水平变动关系再探索

发布时间：2018-02-06 05:12

本文关键词： 总和生育率人类发展指数政策调整政策效果　出处：《人口研究》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章利用1982、1990、2000、2010年4次中国人口普查计算数据和学者调整数据,考察中国各省、自治区、直辖市(本文简称各省(区、市))TFR和相应年份HDI之间的关系,发现各省(区、市)HDI迅速提高、地区差异不断缩小,TFR不断下降、地区差异也不断缩小,HDI与TFR呈现负向关系,且这种经济社会发展对生育水平的抑制作用在逐渐降低。进一步将各省(区、市)按生育政策类型划分后,各类地区两变量依然呈负相关,并未出现尾部上翘或呈"反J型",尽管上海、北京、天津市在2010年的HDI已经达到0.788以上的极高人类发展水平。中国目前尚未达到类似西方部分发达国家生育水平随经济社会发展自动回升的阶段。如果政策不调整,全国各省(区、市)生育水平随经济社会发展还会继续下降,尚未触底,及时放开政策能有效抑制TFR进一步下降。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of four population censuses in China and the adjustment data of scholars in 1982 / 1990 / 2000 and 2010, this paper investigates the provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government in China (this paper is referred to as the provinces (regions)). The relationship between TFR and HDI in the corresponding year shows that the HDI of the provinces (districts and cities) increases rapidly, the regional differences decrease and the regional differences decrease. There is a negative relationship between HDI and TFR, and the inhibitory effect of this kind of economic and social development on the fertility level is gradually decreasing. Further, the provinces (districts, municipalities) are divided according to the type of fertility policy. There is still a negative correlation between the two variables in various regions, with no tail upwardness or "anti-J-type", despite Shanghai and Beijing. In 2010, Tianjin's HDI had reached a very high level of human development above 0. 788. China has not yet reached the stage of automatic recovery with economic and social development, similar to that of some developed countries in the west. If the policy is not adjusted. With the development of economy and society, the fertility level of provinces (districts and cities) in China will continue to decline, but it has not reached the bottom yet. Opening policy in time can effectively restrain the further decline of TFR.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心;中国人民大学社会与人口学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国人口负增长研究”(16BRK004) 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“低生育率的中国模式”(15JJD840003)的资助
【分类号】：C924.2

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