中国生育政策效果的经济学分析

发布时间：2018-02-07 09:20

  本文关键词： 生育政策 生育行为 政策效果 经济学方法　出处：《云南大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：实施了多年积极地限制生育的政策,有效地缓解了我国人口规模过快增长的压力,但该政策也造成了我国人口结构一定程度的失衡,在此背景下,我国对生育政策进行了重大调整,并相继制定和实施了“单独二孩”和“全面二孩”政策。从实际情况来看,“单独二孩”政策并没有获得预期的政策效果,更没有出现预测的报复性生育高潮,刚刚实施的“全面二孩”政策的效果还有待实践的检验,虽然社会普遍持乐观态度,但生育行为有其自身的逻辑,政策设计的本身也有难以完美之处,政策效果与预期存在偏差的可能性使得将上述两者统一起来分析的需求更为迫切。本文在对人口普查数据进行分析的基础上认为,我国人口的基本国情存在增长乏力、结构失衡等特点,并运用数理模型推演出我国人口发展趋势将会是人口数量迅速下降、老龄化趋势加剧的判断。文章梳理了我国建国以后生育政策的变迁脉络并将其分为三个阶段：自由生育政策阶段(1949年—1959年)、消极地限制生育政策阶段(1960年—1979年)、积极地限制生育政策阶段(1980年—2013年),将现时定义为生育政策的调整阶段。在明确我国生育政策正处于调整阶段后,本文从微观角度出发,运用经济学方法分析人们的生育行为尤其是将无差异分析方法运用到生育成本的分析中,在此基础上,对生育政策的作用机制进行解释,然后建立数理模型对“单独二孩”和“全面二孩”以及未来有可能实施的“全面放开”三个生育政策影响面进行探讨,再从规模和结构两个方面分析这些生育政策的人口效应,总结了影响政策效果的因素并得出这三个生育政策都不会必然地提高生育率的结论。最后,在对我国现阶段生育政策的效果作出基本判断的基础上,提出如何更好地实现我国生育政策目标的一些启示和相关建议。
[Abstract]:The policy of actively limiting fertility for many years has effectively alleviated the pressure of excessive population growth in our country, but this policy has also resulted in a certain degree of imbalance in the population structure of our country. China has made major adjustments to its fertility policy, and has successively formulated and implemented the policy of "single two-child" and "all-around two-child". From the actual situation, the policy of "single two-child" has not achieved the expected policy effect. There has been no predicted retaliatory fertility climax. The effect of the "comprehensive two-child" policy that has just been implemented has yet to be tested in practice. Although society is generally optimistic, fertility behavior has its own logic. It is difficult to perfect the policy design itself, and the possibility of deviation between policy effect and expectation makes the need to unify the above two analysis more urgent. This paper holds that, based on the analysis of census data, The basic national conditions of China's population are characterized by weak growth and unbalanced structure, and the mathematical model is used to infer that the population development trend of our country will be a rapid decline of population. The article sorts out the changing context of fertility policy after the founding of the people's Republic of China and divides it into three stages: the stage of free birth policy (1949-1959), the stage of passively restricting fertility policy (1960-1960). Actively limiting the birth policy stage (1980-2013), defining the present as the adjustment stage of the fertility policy. After it is clear that our country's fertility policy is in the adjustment stage, In this paper, from the micro point of view, we use economic methods to analyze people's reproductive behavior, especially apply the non-differential analysis method to the analysis of fertility cost, and on this basis, explain the mechanism of fertility policy. Then the mathematical model is established to discuss the influence of the "single second child" and "comprehensive second child" and the "comprehensive opening" three fertility policies that may be implemented in the future, and then analyze the population effect of these fertility policies from two aspects of scale and structure. This paper summarizes the factors influencing the effect of the policy and draws the conclusion that none of the three fertility policies will necessarily increase the fertility rate. Finally, on the basis of making a basic judgment on the effect of the fertility policy at the present stage of our country, Some enlightenments and relevant suggestions on how to achieve the goal of fertility policy in China are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：C924.21
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本文编号：1494039