几类人口预测模型的改进及实证分析

发布时间：2018-02-08 20:41

本文关键词： Malthus Logistic 流动人口民族地区　出处：《中央民族大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：人口问题是联系社会经济发展最基本、最复杂问题,受到世界各国诸多领域的关注.就人口规模的发展而言存在极大地差异,如某些发展中国家人口生育率过高；而某些发达国家的生育率过低,甚至为负增长,这些现象会引发一系列社会经济问题,如失业、老龄化,进而影响社会稳定. 中国是世界上人口最多、多民族共存、地大物博而人均资源甚少的国家,改革开放以来,我国经济社会取得了举世属目的成就.然而,人口问题成为制约中国经济发展的重要因素.国家的稳定发展需要均衡而可持续,需要缩小差距、机会与资源的公平与均衡,本文关注通过分析人口发展方程,关注民族区域人口的发展状况与趋势,主要考虑年末总人口指标.本文包括三部分内容：第一章主要介绍了近年来国内、外人口问题的研究状况,分析了人口发展方程的发展过程以及相关方程在国内的一些应用. 第二章简单地介绍了Malthus人口发展模型和Logistic人口阻滞发展方程,并用其对民族地区人口问题并进行了适用性检验. 第三章是区域特定下的实证分析,根据区域的实际情况削弱了Logistic人口阻滞方程中的假设条件,引进了流动人口这个因素作为影响年末总人口的因素.对Logistic人口阻滞发展方程进行了改进,并以广西作为研究对象进行了实证研究.
[Abstract]:Population problem is the most basic and complex problem related to social and economic development, which is concerned by many fields all over the world. There are great differences in the development of population scale, such as the high fertility rate in some developing countries. In some developed countries, the fertility rate is too low or even negative. These phenomena will lead to a series of social and economic problems, such as unemployment, aging, and then affect social stability. China is a country with the largest population, multi-ethnic coexistence, abundant land and abundant resources per capita. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy and society have achieved worldwide achievements. Population problem has become an important factor restricting China's economic development. The stable development of a country needs to be balanced and sustainable, needs to narrow the gap, and opportunities and resources are fair and balanced. This paper focuses on the analysis of population development equation. Focus on the development and trend of population in ethnic regions, mainly consider the year-end population indicators. This paper includes three parts:. The first chapter mainly introduces the research status of population problems in China and abroad in recent years, analyzes the development process of population development equation and some applications of related equations in China. In the second chapter, the Malthus population development model and Logistic population block development equation are briefly introduced, and the applicability of the model to the population problems in minority areas is tested. The third chapter is the empirical analysis under the specific region. According to the actual situation of the region, it weakens the hypothetical conditions in the Logistic population block equation. This paper introduces the floating population as a factor affecting the total population at the end of the year, improves the equation of population block development of Logistic, and takes Guangxi as the research object.
【学位授予单位】：中央民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;C924.2

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