安徽省人口城市化水平的发展现状及预测研究

发布时间：2018-02-10 18:47

本文关键词： 人口城市化安徽省联合国法时间序列ARMA混合模型　出处：《安徽财经大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：“21世纪对世界影响最大的有两件大事：一是美国高科技产业,二是中国的城市化”这是由诺贝尔经济学获得者约瑟夫斯蒂格利茨教授在2002年指出的。把城市化定为经济发展的持久动力是2010年中央一号文件的重大亮点,目前我国已进入快速城市化阶段,因此城市化问题一直是学者们关注的问题。一直以来,安徽省人口城市化发展水平均低于全国平均水平。到2010年底,全国人口城市化平均水平为49.68%,而安徽省城市化水平为43.01%,低于全国约6.67个百分点。安徽省是个典型的农业大省,人口城市化水平比较低,而人口城市化水平低带来的一系列问题又会严重的制约安徽省经济社会的发展。因此文章研究安徽省人口城市化问题不仅具有一定的理论意义,也具有重要的现实意义。文章分析了我省人口城市化发展水平的现状,分析了影响安徽省的人口城市化发展的因素,并利用我省历年来城镇人口占总人口比重数据,根据不同时间段预算的城乡人口比增长速度,同时借助国际预测法分析提出低中高三个方案,为了弥补该方法粗略的不足,本文还利用混合模型预测法对安徽省人口城市化时间序列数据预测分析。
[Abstract]:In 21th century, there were two major events that had the greatest impact on the world: first, the high-tech industry in the United States. Second, urbanization in China. "this was pointed out by Professor Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel economist, in 2002. Making urbanization a lasting driving force for economic development is a major highlight of the 2010 Central Committee document No. 1. At present, China has entered the stage of rapid urbanization, so urbanization has always been a concern of scholars. All along, the level of urbanization in Anhui Province is lower than the national average. By end of 2010, The average urbanization level of the whole country is 49.68 percent, while the urbanization level of Anhui Province is 43.01 percent, which is lower than that of the whole country by about 6.67 percentage points. Anhui Province is a typical big agricultural province with a relatively low level of population urbanization. However, a series of problems brought about by the low level of population urbanization will seriously restrict the economic and social development of Anhui Province. Therefore, the study of population urbanization in Anhui Province not only has certain theoretical significance, but also has important practical significance. This paper analyzes the present situation of population urbanization in our province, analyzes the factors influencing the development of population urbanization in Anhui Province, and makes use of the data of the proportion of urban population to the total population in Anhui Province over the years. According to the growth rate of urban-rural population ratio in different time periods, and with the aid of international forecasting method, the paper puts forward three schemes of low, middle and high schools, in order to make up for the rough deficiency of this method. This paper also uses the mixed model forecast method to forecast and analyze the time series data of population urbanization in Anhui Province.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F299.2;C924.2

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