低生育率自我强化效应的社会学机制的检验与再阐述

发布时间：2018-02-22 13:38

本文关键词： 低生育率低生育率陷阱退行性生育政策　出处：《人口学刊》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文从低生育率陷阱原假说出发,利用低生育率典型地区宜昌的调查数据检验并尝试重新阐释低生育率自我强化效应的社会学机制。数据结果表明,社会学机制的自我强化效果是存在的,保证其作用发挥的理想家庭规模是通过纵横两个方向的社会化过程习得的。纵向社会化的学习来源是育龄人群的父母的子女数量,横向社会化的学习来源是育龄人群的同辈人的常见子女数量和其所处的计生政策环境。社会化过程具有退行性特征,因此育龄人群的理想家庭规模更倾向于较小的值,在社会学机制的作用下,育龄人群最终生育数量更倾向于小于其父辈。由此,低生育率实现了代际传递,进而实现了自我加强。但是这并不表示这种自我强化机制是不可改变的。
[Abstract]:Based on the hypothesis of low fertility trap, this paper uses the survey data of Yichang, a typical area of low fertility, to test and reinterpret the sociological mechanism of self-reinforcing effect of low fertility. The self-reinforcing effect of sociological mechanism exists, and the ideal family size to ensure its function is acquired through the socialization process in both directions. The longitudinal socialized learning comes from the number of children of parents of childbearing age. The learning source of horizontal socialization is the number of common children of the peers of childbearing age group and the policy environment of their family planning. The socialization process has degenerative characteristics, so the ideal family size of the childbearing age group tends to be smaller. As a result of the sociological mechanism, the final number of children of childbearing age is more likely to be smaller than that of their parents. As a result, the low fertility rate achieves intergenerational transmission. This does not mean that the self-reinforcing mechanism is immutable.
【作者单位】：中南财经政法大学公共管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学重大项目:完善计划生育利益导向机制研究(11&ZD038)
【分类号】：C924.21

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