中国的人口转变与未来人口政策的调整

发布时间：2018-02-25 06:22

本文关键词： 人口转变人口政策人口红利　出处：《中国特色社会主义研究》2013年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：中国已从高出生率、高死亡率、高自然增长率的国家转变为低出生率、低死亡率、低自然增长率的国家;从以农村人口为主的国家转变为以城镇人口为主的国家;从成年型人口国家转变为老龄化人口国家。中国人口的这种重大转变,对社会与经济的发展已经或将造成很多重大影响,这些影响包括:劳动力人口占比开始下降、城镇化速度加快、农村老龄化水平提升、人口负债压力日益加大、人口出生性别比攀升造成的婚姻挤压问题逐步显化、"421家庭"赡养结构渐成规模等。为达到"人口长期均衡发展"的目的,人口政策应在分析这些影响过程中作出调整:在"十二五"末期考虑实施独生子女与非独生子女结婚可以生育两个孩子的政策,在"十三五"末期实施所有育龄夫妇都可以生育两孩子的间隔生育政策。
[Abstract]:China has changed from a country with a high birth rate, a high mortality rate and a high natural growth rate to a country with a low birth rate, a low mortality rate and a low natural growth rate; This major shift in China's population has had or will have a significant impact on social and economic development, including the beginning of a decline in the share of the labour force. The speed of urbanization is accelerating, the level of rural aging is rising, and the pressure of population indebtedness is increasing day by day. The problem of marriage compression caused by the rising sex ratio of population at birth has gradually become apparent, and the support structure of 421 families has gradually developed into a large scale. In order to achieve the goal of "long-term balanced development of the population," The population policy should be adjusted in the analysis of these effects: at the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the policy of one-child marriage and non-one-child marriage can have two children. At the end of the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan, all couples of childbearing age were allowed to have two children at intervals.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院社会学研究所;
【分类号】：C924.2

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