人口结构变动对经常账户的影响——基于215个国家和地区数据的经验分析

发布时间：2018-02-26 10:30

本文关键词： 人口结构变动老龄化少子化经常账户　出处：《当代经济管理》2015年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：利用215个国家和地区1995~2012年非平衡面板数据,研究了人口结构变动对经常账户的影响。结果发现,人口老龄化和少子化变动趋势对经常账户不利。从供给角度说,老龄化和少子化变动趋势使一国劳动供给减少,劳动效率下降,从而对产出和出口不利;从需求角度说,老年人口占比提高,会增加该国的进口消费,导致经常账户出现逆差。进一步分组回归发现,高老龄化国家人口结构变动趋势对经常账户有利,而低老龄化国家人口结构变动趋势对经常账户不利。此外,还发现本币贬值、人均收入提高、社会保障制度完善和高科技产品出口有利于改善经常账户,而外资流入的作用相反。这为分析中国人口结构变动的影响提供了借鉴和启示。
[Abstract]:Based on the non-equilibrium panel data of 215 countries and regions from 1995 to 2012, the effects of demographic changes on the current account are studied. The results show that the trend of population aging and minority changes is unfavorable to the current account. The changing trend of ageing and minority children has reduced the supply of labour and reduced labour efficiency in a country, which is detrimental to output and exports; in terms of demand, an increase in the proportion of the elderly population will increase the country's import consumption. Resulting in a current account deficit. Further grouping regression found that demographic trends in high-ageing countries were favourable to current accounts, while demographic changes in low-ageing countries were not favourable to current accounts. In addition, it was also found that local currencies depreciated, The increase of per capita income, the perfection of social security system and the export of high-tech products are beneficial to the improvement of the current account, while the inflow of foreign capital has the opposite effect, which provides a reference and inspiration for analyzing the influence of the change of China's population structure.
【作者单位】：中国银行国际金融研究所;中国出口信用保险公司博士后科研工作站;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目《中国企业低价出口之谜:基于企业边际成本加成率的研究》(71203104);国家自然科学基金青年项目《社会关系对民营企业出口行为的影响机制:基于企业间关系与政企关系的研究》(71103153) 中国博士后科研基金一等资助项目《劳动力年龄结构与出口比较优势:解构作为渠道的技能》(2015M570217)
【分类号】：C92;F742

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