老龄化进程中的中国汇率政策

发布时间：2018-02-26 19:10

本文关键词： 老龄化汇率杠杆效应汇率政策　出处：《复旦大学》2010年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：20世纪80年代后,中国实施的计划生育政策为中国带来了“人口红利”,提供了较高的储蓄率和丰富的劳动力,但人口红利期将会在21世纪30年代后结束,中国将在21世纪遭遇人口的快速老龄化,从而对经济总量、结构和外部平衡状况造成影响。本文的研究目标是,以经济学理论和模型为工具,在对老龄化经济后果进行估计和统筹考虑的基础上,发挥汇率的杠杆作用,规划出21世纪我国人口老龄化进程中的中长期汇率路径和调节策略,使用汇率政策来为我国长期的经济增长、结构改进和外部平衡提供支持。本文在考察了他人的研究成果和国内外典型事实后,将人口经济学和开放宏观经济学这两个在国内相对比较独立的学科结合起来,并加入和强调了汇率的杠杆属性,建立了包含人口学因素,以汇率水平为“牵一发而动全身”的核心变量的汇率杠杆模型,作为本文的工作母机。汇率杠杆模型实现了人口经济学模型的开放化,即能反映国际收支流量和国外资产积累存量,又实现了开放宏观经济模‘型的人口代际微观化,即反映不同年龄人口在劳动供给、消费、储蓄等方面的行为差距；不仅如此,该模型还包括了汇率杠杆作用的微观机制,既可以对任意给定的汇率路径,预测出对物价、资产收益率等中间目标和对经济总量、结构和外部平衡等最终目标的影响方向和大小,又可根据特定最终目标,反向求解应有的汇率水平。本文还使用统计学和计量经济学等手段,对汇率杠杆模型中可估计的参数和初始值进行独立的估计。本文运用汇率杠杆模型的简化版本,在不考虑汇率变动的情况下,模拟和预测了21世纪的多数时间内(2009-2070年)我国在人口老龄化、金融市场开放等重大变革下的经济发展情况,发现在人口老龄化进程中,我国经济发展将呈现出的特征为经济总量增速明显下降、消费率明显提高、投资率一定幅度下降、国外资产从高速积累逐渐转为高速消耗、在21世纪50年代以后出现高比例外债。为了解决老龄化进程中出现的经济问题,本文利用包含人口学因素的汇率杠杆模型,模拟了人民币在不同时间点下一次性贬值、升值和持续贬值、升值带来的经济总量、结构和外部平衡情况变化,发现汇率政策对解决老龄化进程中的外部平衡问题最为有效,同时还能帮助实现经济结构的调整,而对经济总量的贡献较小,且汇率政策的执行效果存在路径依赖。本文还发现,在老龄化进程中,持续升值能够提高居民福利水平,但不能很好地解决外部平衡问题,持续贬值能够避免国外负债,但改善外部平衡的福利代价较大,保持汇率不变的政策无论在提高居民福利水平还是在维持外部平衡上均不可取。本文使用计算机求解了2010-2070年面向全体居民和面向特定居民群体的汇率政策优化方案。按照面向全体居民的一般汇率优化方案,人民币应在21世纪30年代前逐步升值,提高居民近期福利水平,而在30年代后逐步贬值,以降低居民未来福利水平为代价,换取外部平衡。一般优化的汇率政策会与不同年龄的居民个体福利最大化产生一定冲突,尤其会对21世纪中后期进入社会的年轻人带来不利。通过对比各种汇率政策方案,本文发现汇率政策调节的时机和尺度差异对调节的效果影响很大,若过度升值可能会出现外部平衡无法恢复的“贬值陷阱”。在我国老龄化进程中,本文提出的中长期汇率政策建议是在21世纪30年代前升值,在21世纪30年代后贬值,令人民币的中期和短期升值趋势平滑过渡,在政策搭配时,可着重将汇率政策用于外部平衡的维持以实现最优指派。
[Abstract]:After 1980s, China implementation of the one-child policy brings the "demographic dividend" for Chinese, provides a high savings rate and abundant labor, but will the demographic dividend period at the end of 2030s, China in rapid aging of the population suffered in twenty-first Century, so the total economy, impact structure and external balance. The objectives of this paper is to economics theory and model as a tool, the economic consequences of aging based estimation and overall consideration on the leverage effect of exchange rate, exchange rate and long-term planning path adjustment strategy in twenty-first Century China's population aging process, the use of exchange rate policy for long-term economic growth in China, provide support for structure improvement and external balance.
This paper reviews the research results of other people and the domestic and foreign typical facts, population economics and macro economics will open the two in domestic relatively independent disciplines are combined, and added and emphasized the leverage character of the exchange rate, including demographic factors, exchange rate lever model "core variable QianYiFaErDongQuanShen" the exchange rate level, as the workhorses. Currency lever model to realize the open model of population economics, which can reflect the flow of international payments and foreign asset accumulation, but also realize the intergenerational population micro open macroeconomic model ", which reflects the different age population in the labor supply, savings and consumption. Other aspects of the behavior gap; moreover, the model also includes a micro leverage mechanism of exchange rate, exchange rate for any given path can be predicted, on price, capital The middle target yield and income of the total economy, the size and direction of impact structure and external balance as the ultimate goal, but also according to the specific goal, the exchange rate should be the reverse solution. This paper uses statistics and econometrics methods to estimate independent of parameters and initial exchange rate lever model can be estimated.
This paper uses a simplified version of the exchange rate lever model, without considering the exchange rate changes, simulation and prediction of twenty-first Century most of the time (2009-2070 years) in China's population aging, economic development of major changes in financial market opening down, found in the population aging process, the characteristics of China's economic development will appear for the total economy growth rate decreased significantly, the consumption rate increased significantly, the investment rate decreased to certain extent, the rapid accumulation of foreign assets from turning into a high consumption, high proportion of foreign debt occurred since 2050s.
In order to solve the economic problems in the process of aging, the exchange rate lever model including demographic factors, the RMB is simulated at different time points under the one-time devaluation, appreciation and appreciation of the continued depreciation of total economy, structure and external balance changes, found that the external balance of exchange rate policy to solve the problem of the aging process in the effectively, but also help to realize the adjustment of economic structure, and the total contribution to the economy is small, there is path dependent and the exchange rate policy implementation effect. This paper also found that, in the aging process, the continued appreciation can increase the level of residents' welfare, but can not solve the external balance problem very well, to avoid the continued depreciation of foreign debt but, to improve the external balance of the welfare cost of large, to keep the exchange rate policy in terms of improving the level of residents welfare or in maintaining external balance on It is not advisable.
This paper use the computer for 2010-2070 years for all residents and residents for specific groups of exchange rate policy optimization. According to the general optimization scheme for the residents of the exchange rate, RMB appreciation should gradually before 2030s, improve residents' recent welfare level, and gradually devaluation in 30s, in order to reduce future residents at the cost of welfare for external balance general. Optimization of exchange rate policy will have some conflict with the different age of individual welfare maximization, especially in late twenty-first Century to enter the society of young people adversely. Through the comparison of various exchange rate policy scheme, this paper found that the influence of timing and scale differences of exchange rate policy adjustment on the effect of regulation, if excessive appreciation may occur the external balance can not recover from the "devaluation trap".
In the process of aging in China, the long-term exchange rate policy recommendations proposed in this paper is the appreciation in 2030s, in 2030s after the devaluation of the yuan in the medium-term and short-term appreciation trend of a smooth transition in the policy collocation, but will focus on the exchange rate policy for maintaining external balance in order to achieve the optimal assignment.

【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：F832.6;C924.2;F224

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