京津冀地区人口规模调控政策参数化路径与系统模拟

发布时间：2018-02-26 22:02

本文关键词： 区域协调发展政策参数化人口规模调控系统动力学模型京津冀地区　出处：《地理科学进展》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：政策调控是实现区域社会经济均衡发展的主要手段,采用系统分析方法评估和预测政策实施效果是进行决策的重要依据。然而,当前政策制定存在目标指向性不具体、调控力度不明确、协同作用机制不清晰等问题,既阻碍了政策的有效落实,更无法开展政策实施效果分析和决策优化。其根本症结在于缺少能够量化具体的政策目标并精确指导区域管理对策的政策参数。本文提出了面向系统动力学(System Dynamic,SD)模拟的区域调控政策参数化路径。通过细化政策指标、量化政策参数和区间化调控范围等方法,将政策调控转变为系统变量形式,代入到政策交互作用的系统动力学模型中,实现对政策调控效果的模拟。本文以区域人口规模调控政策为切入点,选择京津冀地区为案例区进行实证研究。结果显示,面向系统动力学模拟的政策参数化方案很好地重现了区域人口规模政策调控过程,能有效提高调控政策实施的精确性和可操作度,并为区域调控政策的配置和优化提供理论和方法的支撑。
[Abstract]:Policy is the main means to realize the balanced development of regional social economy, system analysis method is adopted to evaluate and predict the effect of policy implementation is an important basis for decision-making. However, the current policy of targeting is not specific, regulation is not clear, the problem is not clear mechanism of coordination, not only hinder the effective implementation of the policy, the more unable to carry out the policy implementation effect analysis and decision optimization. The fundamental problem is the lack of specific quantitative parameters to the policy objectives and policy guidance for regional precise management strategies. This paper presented the system dynamics (System Dynamic, SD) the path of regional control policy parameters simulation. Through detailed policy indicators, quantitative parameters and interval control policy the range of methods, the policy variables into the formal system into the system dynamics model of policy interaction, implementation Simulation of the effect of policy control. This paper takes the regional population control policy as the breakthrough point, choose the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region in empirical research case. The results show that the policy parameters of the system dynamics simulation scheme for well reproduce the scale of regional population control policy process, can effectively improve the accuracy and control policy manipulability, and provide theoretical and methodological support for the configuration and optimization of regional policy.

【作者单位】：北京联合大学应用文理学院;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;兰州大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重大项目(41590845) 中国博士后科学基金项目(2015M581160)~~
【分类号】：C924.2

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