江苏省人口老龄化对消费结构的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 02:08

本文关键词： 人口老龄化消费结构享受型消费老龄产业　出处：《安徽财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：江苏省作为经济和人口大省,较早的在1986年就迈入了人口老龄化社会,比全国整整提前13年,其老龄化也正处于不断加速阶段。尽管“未富先老”的基本国情对社会经济发展产生了一些消极影响,但老年人口规模的扩大也可以提供积极的外部效应。随着生活质量的改善,老年群体的消费能力和消费水平都有所提高,其消费需求呈现不断上涨的趋势。由于老年人口的消费特征显著区别于其他年龄段人口,因而从消费结构出发,研究老年人口在不同消费品上的表现,对于满足老年人的特殊需求,开拓老年市场,发展老龄产业以及带动国民经济的可持续发展都有重要的指导和促进作用。本文首先对江苏省历次人口普查老龄化的变动过程进行全面分析,并总结了其在老龄化过程中所呈现出的变化特征,还运用国际人口预测软件PADIS-INT对江苏省老年人口的发展趋势进行预测。其次,从静态和动态两方面分析江苏省居民消费结构的现状特征及变动趋势,并结合相关统计数据对江苏省老年人消费总需求变动趋势进行量化分析。接着,运用灰色关联度方法研究江苏省城乡老年人口与消费结构八大项的具体关系,用数值来量化反映老年人口与各项消费品的关联程度。最后,根据上述理论研究和实证分析的结果,从政府和企业两个层面,对于如何更好的开发老年消费市场、应对人口老龄化分别给出相应的对策建议。根据上述研究得出的主要结论有：(1)江苏省老龄化程度比较高,增速快,城乡差异大,高龄化凸显。据预测,2030-2050年是江苏省老年人口增长最迅速的时期。截至2050年,65岁及其以上人口数将增加到2013万人,达到总人口数的31%。(2)江苏省城乡居民食品衣着项消费支出不断减少,医疗保健、交通通讯、居住及文娱服务等支出比重不断上升,消费结构逐步走向合理化。老年群体生活消费各项支出都在上涨,其消费需求类型逐渐从生存型转向享乐型。(3)定量分析结果显示,江苏省老年人口在教育文化娱乐服务、交通和通讯及医疗保健需求方面的消费支出有所增加,而在食品、家庭设备及杂项上的消费支出有所下降。针对研究结论给出的政策建议有：政府应加强宏观方面的调控和指导,健全社会养老服务体系,并加强对老龄产业的扶持引导；企业应加强市场调研,细分老年消费需求,创新老年产品和服务,开拓营销渠道,打造核心老龄产业,完善老龄产业链条。
[Abstract]:Jiangsu Province, as an economic and populous province, stepped into an aging society in 1986, 13 years earlier than the whole country. Its ageing is also at an accelerating stage. Although the basic national conditions of "ageing before becoming rich" have had some negative effects on social and economic development, However, the expansion of the elderly population can also provide positive externalities. With the improvement of the quality of life, the consumption capacity and consumption level of the elderly population have increased. Since the consumption characteristics of the elderly population are significantly different from those of other age groups, the consumption structure of the elderly population is studied in terms of the performance of the elderly population on different consumer goods. It plays an important guiding and promoting role in meeting the special needs of the elderly, opening up the market for the elderly, developing the industry of the aged and driving the sustainable development of the national economy. In this paper, the changing process of aging in the past censuses of Jiangsu Province is analyzed, and the characteristics of the aging process are summarized. The development trend of the elderly population in Jiangsu Province is predicted by using the international population prediction software PADIS-INT. Secondly, the characteristics and changing trend of the consumption structure of the residents in Jiangsu Province are analyzed from static and dynamic aspects. Combined with the relevant statistical data, the change trend of total consumption demand of the elderly in Jiangsu Province is analyzed quantitatively. Then, the specific relationship between the elderly population in urban and rural areas of Jiangsu Province and the eight major items of consumption structure is studied by using the method of grey correlation degree. Finally, according to the above theoretical research and empirical analysis results, from the government and enterprise level, how to better develop the elderly consumer market, The corresponding countermeasures and suggestions should be given respectively for the aging of the population. According to the above study, the main conclusions are: (1) Jiangsu Province has a relatively high degree of aging, a rapid growth rate, and a big difference between urban and rural areas. The aging age is prominent. It is predicted that 2030-2050 will be the fastest growing period for the elderly population in Jiangsu Province. By 2050, the number of the population aged 65 and over will increase to 20.13 million. The consumption expenditure on food and clothing items for urban and rural residents in Jiangsu Province has been decreasing, and the proportion of medical care, transportation, communications, housing and recreational services has been increasing. The consumption structure is gradually being rationalized. All kinds of expenditure of the elderly group's living consumption are on the rise, and the types of consumption demand are gradually changing from the survival type to the hedonic type. The results of quantitative analysis show that the elderly population in Jiangsu Province is providing educational, cultural and recreational services. Consumer spending on transport and communications and health care needs has increased, while food, The government should strengthen the macro-control and guidance, perfect the social old-age service system, and strengthen the support and guidance to the aging industry; Enterprises should strengthen market research, subdivide the consumption demand of the elderly, innovate the products and services for the elderly, open up marketing channels, create the core industry for the aged, and perfect the chain of the industry for the aged.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F126.1;C924.2

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