我国城镇化、农业现代化与人口老龄化城乡倒置相互作用机制研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 14:55

本文选题：城镇化　切入点：人口老龄化城乡倒置　出处：《山西财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来我国城镇化一直保持快速发展,城镇化水平提升飞快,从新中国成立时的10.6%发展到2016年的57.37%,这意味着我国超过一半的人口居住在城镇,按照诺瑟姆的城市化理论,我国已经处于城镇化的快速发展阶段,城镇化已经进入了一个新的发展阶段。但是,在传统的快速城镇化过程中,城乡差距没有缩小的迹象,城镇化的发展明显快于农业现代化,没有更好的带动农业现代化同步发展,而且在城乡发展的进程中又遇到了农村人口老龄化和人口老龄化城乡倒置问题,这导致农村在发展过程中面临着更加严峻的问题,阻碍农业现代化的实现,同时,也会对城镇化本身产生影响,所以,必须将城镇化、农业现代化与人口老龄化城乡倒置问题统筹考虑,使三者协调发展,对城乡统筹发展有很大的理论意义和现实意义。本文首先对城镇化、农业现代化与人口老龄化城乡倒置的相关概念进行了界定,并阐述了它们的发展现状,接着通过文献研究等方法对我国城镇化、农业现代化与人口老龄化城乡倒置问题之间的相互作用机制进行理论分析,理清了三者之间的相互作用关系,运用修正的托达罗劳动力转移模型分析了城镇化、农业现代化与人口老龄化城乡倒置问题三者之间相互作用的原因,认为在不同的预期收入和成本的考虑下,农业劳动力做出的迁移决策不同,就会产生不同的劳动力转移方式,进而会对城镇化、农业现代化与人口老龄化城乡倒置本身以及他们之间的相互作用机制产生不同的影响。然后通过层次分析法等方法收集计算所需数据,运用协整关系检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲函数响应函数以及方差分解等方法对我国城镇化、农业现代化与人口老龄化城乡倒置现象进行了实证分析,分析三个变量的动态响应关系和相应的滞后时长,最后得出与理论分析基本相一致的结论,认为我国传统城镇化发展导致的人口转移模式导致我国人口老龄化城乡倒置,会阻碍我国农业现代化的发展,反过来对城镇化的发展也会产生不利的影响,城镇化在短期对农业现代化的正向影响较小甚至有负面作用,但在长期城镇化的发展对农业现代化有很大的推动作用,农业现代化的发展无论在短期还是长期都对城镇化有很大的促进作用。最后提出我国城镇化、农业现代化、人口老龄化城乡倒置三者相互协调发展的对策与建议,要走新型城镇化道路,改变城乡劳动力转移方式,降低人口转移成本;创新农民组织形式促进农业产业化发展;增强科技创新与推广,加速城乡技术转移。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's urbanization has maintained a rapid development, and the level of urbanization has risen rapidly, from 10.6% when New China was founded to 57.37 in 2016. This means that more than half of the population of our country lives in cities and towns. According to Northam's theory of urbanization, China has been in the rapid development stage of urbanization, urbanization has entered a new stage of development. However, in the traditional rapid urbanization process, there is no sign of narrowing the urban-rural gap. The development of urbanization is obviously faster than that of agricultural modernization. It does not better promote the synchronous development of agricultural modernization. Moreover, in the process of urban-rural development, it has encountered the problems of the aging of the rural population and the inversion of the urban and rural areas with the aging of the population. This leads to more serious problems in the development of rural areas, hindering the realization of agricultural modernization, and at the same time, it will also have an impact on urbanization itself. Agricultural modernization and population aging should be considered as a whole in order to coordinate the development of the three areas, which is of great theoretical and practical significance to the overall development of urban and rural areas. The related concepts of agricultural modernization and urban and rural population aging are defined, and their development status is expounded. Then, the urbanization of China is analyzed by means of literature research and other methods. The interaction mechanism between agricultural modernization and urban and rural population aging is analyzed theoretically, the interaction relationship between them is clarified, and the urbanization is analyzed by using the modified Todaro labor force transfer model. The reasons for the interaction between agricultural modernization and urban and rural inversion of aging population are as follows: under the consideration of different expected income and cost, different migration decisions of agricultural labor force will result in different transfer modes of labor force. It will have different effects on urbanization, agricultural modernization and population aging, and the mechanism of interaction between them. Then the data needed for calculation are collected through analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and cointegration test is used. Granger causality test, impulse function response function and variance decomposition are used to analyze the phenomenon of urbanization, agricultural modernization and urban and rural population aging in China. This paper analyzes the dynamic response relationship of the three variables and the corresponding lag time, and finally draws the conclusion that the population transfer mode caused by the development of traditional urbanization results in the inversion of urban and rural population aging in our country, which is basically consistent with the theoretical analysis. It will hinder the development of agricultural modernization in our country, and in turn will have a negative impact on the development of urbanization. In the short term, the positive impact of urbanization on agricultural modernization is small or even negative. However, the development of long-term urbanization has a great role in promoting agricultural modernization, the development of agricultural modernization has a great role in promoting urbanization in both the short and long term. Finally, it is proposed that China's urbanization, agricultural modernization, The countermeasures and suggestions for the coordinated development of the three inverted urban and rural population are to take a new road of urbanization, to change the mode of labor force transfer between urban and rural areas, to reduce the cost of population transfer, to innovate the form of farmers' organization to promote the development of agricultural industrialization; We will step up scientific and technological innovation and promotion and accelerate the transfer of technology between urban and rural areas.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.24;F299.21;F320.1

【参考文献】