人口惯性测量方法推广及其对新疆人口发展状况的模拟研究

发布时间：2018-03-05 18:43

本文选题：人口惯性　切入点：新疆人口　出处：《中央民族大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：人口的负增长惯性必将导致中国人口老龄化和少子化等结构性问题日趋严重。本文首先基于Preston(1997)提出的人口惯性离散公式,对人口惯性测量方法进行了推广,即,将五岁组精确到一岁组,使预测结果更为准确。其次,选取新疆作为研究省份,从具体数据出发,分别应用原有方法和推广后的人口惯性测量方法,计算了新疆的各个人口惯性因子,并进行了对比分析；最后,就新疆人口的发展现状,采用不同方案模拟了从六普到本世纪末新疆人口的发展状况,测量了新疆人口达到峰值年份的人口惯性作用及本世纪末人口惯性的作用。主要结论如下：第一、虽然全国第五次、第六次人口普查数据显示新疆全区及分城乡人口的惯性因子都大于1,也即,其人口均处于正惯性增长阶段。但是这十年间,人口正惯性的增长在下降,且乡村人口的下降幅度大于城镇。第二、总和生育率提高到更替水平的年份越早,新疆人口总量达到峰值的年份越迟,人口达到的峰值越高,之后人口减少的速度越慢。不同模拟方案显示：假设总和生育率维持在1.53(低于更替水平)并保持不变,新疆全区人口总量未来30年仍将继续增长,但在2040年达到峰值之后将迅速减少；假设总和生育率在2030年之后一步提高到更替水平并保持不变,新疆全区人口总量峰值年份推迟到2049年,之后缓慢减少然后趋于稳定；假设总和生育率在2030年之前线性增长到更替水平并保持不变,新疆全区人口总量的峰值年份为2054年,之后缓慢减少然后趋于稳定。第三、对比新疆城镇和乡村的人口惯性作用,可以发现：不同模拟方案下,城镇人口达到峰值的年份比乡村早,人口惯性因子下降的幅度也比乡村大,而且在达到峰值以后,城镇人口总量的下降速度也比乡村快,城镇的人口惯性作用对新疆全区的影响也比乡村大。乡村各年龄组的人口比重都是小幅度变化,城镇各年龄组的人口比重变化很明显。提高总和生育率,城镇少年儿童组的人口比重近似不变,但是一直低于乡村；城镇成年人口比重会出现大幅下降,在2030年左右下降到低于乡村,但是在2060年以后又会出现一定的回升；城镇老年人口比重会出现大幅上升,然后趋于平稳,但是一直高于乡村。
[Abstract]:The negative growth inertia of population will inevitably lead to the structural problems such as aging and minority children becoming more and more serious in China. Firstly, based on the discrete formula of population inertia proposed by Preston 1997, this paper popularizes the method of population inertia measurement, that is, In order to make the forecast more accurate, the five year old group is accurate to the one year old group. Secondly, Xinjiang is selected as the research province, and the original method and the popularized population inertial measurement method are applied separately from the specific data. The population inertia factors of Xinjiang are calculated and compared. Finally, according to the current situation of Xinjiang's population development, different schemes are used to simulate the development of Xinjiang's population from Liupu to the end of this century. The population inertia in Xinjiang in the peak year and the population inertia at the end of this century are measured. The main conclusions are as follows: first, although 5th times in China, The data from the 6th censuses show that the inertia factor of the whole region and the urban and rural population in Xinjiang is greater than 1, that is, its population is in the stage of positive inertial growth. However, in the past ten years, the positive growth of the population has been decreasing. Second, the earlier the total fertility rate rises to the replacement level, the later the total population in Xinjiang will reach its peak, and the higher the population peak. Later, the slower the population decline, the more slowly the population will decline. Different scenarios show that assuming that the total fertility rate remains at 1.53 (below replacement level) and remains unchanged, the total population of Xinjiang will continue to grow for the next 30 years. Assuming that the total fertility rate will increase to replacement level and remain unchanged after 2030, the peak year of the total population in Xinjiang will be postponed to 2049, and then slowly decrease and then tend to stabilize. Assuming that the total fertility rate increases linearly to the replacement level before 2030 and remains unchanged, the peak year of the total population of Xinjiang is 2054, and then slowly decreases and then tends to stabilize. Third, compare the population inertia between towns and villages in Xinjiang. It can be found that under different simulation schemes, the urban population reaches its peak value earlier than the rural population, and the decline of the population inertia factor is larger than that of the rural population, and after the peak, the total urban population decreases faster than the rural population. The impact of the urban population inertia on the whole Xinjiang region is also greater than that of the rural areas. The proportion of the population in each age group in the countryside has changed by a small margin, and the proportion of the population in each age group in the town has changed significantly. The total fertility rate has been increased. The proportion of urban children and adolescents is approximately unchanged, but it is always lower than that of rural areas; the proportion of urban adult population will decrease significantly, and will drop to lower than that of rural areas in 2030 or so, but after 2060, there will be a certain increase. The proportion of elderly people in cities and towns will rise sharply and then stabilize, but will always be higher than in rural areas.
【学位授予单位】：中央民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：C924.2

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