人口老龄化对我国肉类消费的影响

发布时间：2018-03-06 01:31

本文选题：肉类消费　切入点：人口结构　出处：《中国软科学》2014年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基于全国6个城市1340户家庭饮食消费调查数据,本文实证分析了人口老龄化对畜禽肉类消费的影响,并据此模拟了人口老龄化对我国未来肉类消费需求的可能影响。研究结果表明:人口老龄化显著影响居民人均肉类消费量,家庭中60岁以上老年人比例每增加l%会导致家庭人均肉类消费量减少0.5%;同时,模拟分析结果表明,如果不考虑人口老龄化因素,会导致对2030年我国肉类消费需求量高估约5.6%。研究结果对于分析我国社会老龄化背景下的肉类需求及由此导致的食物安全与饲料粮安全问题、以及相关政策制定具有重要意义。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of 1340 households' dietary consumption in six cities of China, this paper empirically analyzed the effect of aging population on the consumption of livestock and poultry meat. Based on this, the possible impact of population aging on the future meat consumption demand of China is simulated. The results show that the aging population significantly affects the per capita meat consumption. An increase of 1 per cent in the proportion of people over 60 years of age in households will result in a 0.5 per cent reduction in the per capita consumption of meat in households. At the same time, the simulation results show that if the ageing population is not taken into account, In 2030, the demand for meat consumption in China will be overestimated by about 5.6%. The results of the study are of great significance to the analysis of the demand for meat under the background of aging society in China, the problems of food safety and feed food safety caused by it, and the formulation of relevant policies.
【作者单位】：中国农业大学经济管理学院;德国莱布尼兹汉诺威大学发展与农业经济研究所;中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院;中国科学院农业政策研究中心;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2014RC017) 国家自然科学基金项目(71273009和71222302)资助
【分类号】：F326.3;C924.2

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