老龄化对种植业生产影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 07:07

  本文选题：老龄化　切入点：种植业　出处：《南京农业大学》2012年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国社会经济发展和计划生育政策的严格实施,人口出生率持续下降、人口平均寿命不断延长,这使得我国人口年龄结构快速转变,人口老龄化现象突出。到2010年,我国60岁以上的老龄人口已占我国总人口的13.26%。在我国农村中,大规模的以青壮年为主的农村劳动力向城市迁移,使得农村的人口老龄化程度比城市更加严重。农村人口结构的显著变化也带来了农业劳动力年龄结构的显著改变,农业劳动力的平均年龄呈现逐年递增的趋势,且老龄劳动力占有较大比重。对此现象,很多学者表示堪忧,他们认为老龄人口一方面生理机能下降,自身体力不能胜任繁重的农业劳动；另一方面老龄人口受教育程度低,思想僵化,不利于新的农业技术的推广和采用,从而会影响到我国农业的生产,甚至引发粮食安全问题。 但已有研究表明：一方面,在大田生产中,我国小规模农户受农业生产条件或市场条件的外部约束而表现出集体决策(即农户种植决策和周围人的种植决策具有普遍相似性)的形式。土地规模较小的小农户采取从众决策将是一种理性选择。大田农业生产技术(包括整个生产过程中涉及的生产技术)的易模仿性,并不需要经营者个人具有特别高的决策能力,简单模仿将大大降低对经营者人力资本的需求；另一方面,近些年,农业生产机械在我国得到了长足的发展,农业生产的大部分环节甚至全部环节都实现了机械化。农业生产环节的机械化替代了经营者的体力劳动,不但使得农业生产中总的劳动投入量减少,还降低了经营者的劳动强度(首先发展机械化的生产环节一般是对经营者劳动强度要求比较高的生产环节),这将使得农业生产对经营者体力方面的要求大大降低。 随着越来越多的农业生产环节机械化的实现,以及在实际农业生产中,我国小规模农户采取一定程度的集体决策形式,这使得农业生产对劳动者体力与人力资本的要求没有那么严格了。那么,老龄劳动力的体力下降和低人力资本还是农业生产的严重制约因素吗?由于种植业作物的机械综合作业程度不同,以及作物生产技术的可模仿程度也有所不同,那么,老龄劳动力对不同作物的影响程度是否相同呢?反映在作物中,老龄化对作物生产影响程度不同的边界可能是什么?围绕这些问题本文对老年农户和年轻农户的农业生产行为进行了理论分析和实证考察,并对两类农户在农业生产实践中的集体决策程度和机械对劳动替代程度进行了深入访谈。本文主要研究内容和相关结论如下： 研究内容一：老龄化对农户种植决策的影响 本部分内容主要考察老龄劳动力与年轻劳动力在农户种植决策行为上的差异。如果两类农户之间在作物种植决策行为上不存在差异,则表明作物现有生产环节的机械化程度和农业生产的集体决策形式足以抵消老龄劳动力的体力下降和低人力资本对农户种植决策的影响,老龄化不会影响到农户对该类作物的种植决策。反之,则表明作物现有农业生产环节的机械化程度和农业生产的集体决策形式还不足以抵消老龄劳动力的体力下降和低人力资本在农户种植决策中的作用,老龄化将影响到农户对该类作物的种植决策。 该内容的验证可分为以下两个子内容进行验证： 子内容一：老龄化对农户种植面积决策的影响 该部分内容首先是根据作物机械综合作业水平划分为两大类作物,再分别比较老龄农户与年轻农户在不同作物中农户种植面积决策行为的差异,来说明老龄化对农户种植面积是否产生影响。研究结果表明,在机械化程度高的大田作物中,如小麦、玉米和大豆,老龄农户与年轻农户种植面积没有差异,而在机械化程度不太高或某些劳动强度大的环节未实现机械化的作物中,如水稻和棉花两类作物,老龄农户与年轻农种植面积表现出一定差异,老龄农户将倾向于减少该类作物的种植面积。 子内容二：老龄化对农户主要要素投入决策的影响 该内容的研究具体化为比较老龄农户与年轻农户在两大类作物(作物划分标准如子内容一,下同)的化肥、农药、机械和劳动用工量上是否存在差异。在作物主要要素投入中,对化肥和农药的使用量、使用时间以及使用种类的决策能力,体现了对经营者相对较高人力资本的要求。而对作物机械投入和劳动用工量的决策,对经营者人力资本的要求相对较低。研究结果表明,在现有农业生产条件下,老龄劳动力与年轻劳动力在作物要素投入并未表现差异。这表明,无论作物机械化程度的高低,也无论投入要素对经营者人力资本要求的高低,老龄农户在作物的主要要素投入上并不比年轻农户少。 研究内容二：老龄化对作物种植决策实施结果(单产)的影响 对该内容的研究是对农户农业生产过程的第二步实证,是对农户种植决策验证之后的延续,两部分的结合才能最终确定老龄化对种植业是否存在影响。该部分主要是考察老龄劳动力与年轻劳动力在对作物种植决策实施结果上是否存在差异,也就是老龄劳动力从事的作物单产是否显著差别于年轻劳动力从事的作物单产。如果两者无明显差别,则表明在作物种植决策相同的情况下,老龄农户实施种植决策的效果上与年轻农户没有差别。反之亦然。实证结果表明,无论是在机械化程度高的作物还是在机械化程度低的作物上,两类农户的单产并无显著差异。通过农户类型与劳动用工量的交互项的考察发现,两类农户的劳动效率在大多数作物中并没有显著差异,但在玉米和大豆两种作物中,老年农户的劳动效率要低于年轻农户的劳动效率,这可能是由于东北大规模经营土地的农户大部分生产依靠自有机械而非雇佣机械。 研究内容三：现实农业生产实践中,农户集体决策的形式和机械对劳动的替代程度。 上述两部分内容主要是对老年农户与年轻农户在作物生产行为上是否存在差异的实证检验,本部分内容是针对经营者的体力与人力资本在农业生产实践中是否产生影响的机理进行案例补充。本部分研究通过深入访谈的形式,着重了解农户是如何做出种植决策的?以及农业生产中哪些生产环节实现了机械化?从而充分考察农业生产中集体决策的程度和机械对劳动的替代程度。通过访谈发现,尽管农户分散、每户经营规模很小,但是,通过村里能人组织、非正式合作或者专业合作组织等形式,农户生产决策和生产技术的同质程度很高。农户利用农机“外包”服务的程度也很高,农业生产中劳动强度大的生产环节基本实现了机械化,剩下劳动强度小的生产环节老年人能够完全胜任。 综合三大部分研究内容得出的主要结论可以概括为：在我国大田作物生产中,人地比例较小的农户生产存在普遍的集体决策形式,农业生产技术易于模仿,老龄化对种植业生产的影响将因作物的机械化程度不同(对劳动者体力要求不同)而有所不同。从老龄化对小麦、玉米和大豆等机械化程度高的作物的种植决策以及种植决策实施结果均没有显著影响,到老龄化对水稻和棉花等机械化程度低(或者未实现机械化的生产环节对劳动者体力要求较高)的作物种植决策(这两种作物主要体现在种植面积决策的差异)上有显著影响。可以进一步推论,在农户必须独立做出生产决策或者作物生产技术更新变化速度快或者无任何机械替代劳动的情况下,老龄化对该类作物的影响很可能不仅表现在作物种植决策上,还可能表现在作物种植决策的实施结果上,即老龄化对作物的影响将会更加明显。 本研究在理论上的一个有意义的发现是：在农业生产存在集体决策和机械对劳动替代的情况下,人力资本在一些作物生产中的作用被弱化,甚至完全不起作用。但是,在集体决策程度或者机械替代劳动程度不高的情况下,人力资本的作用在就可能明显表现出来。而老龄化是我国及今后很长一段时间必须面对的基本国情,因此,需要我们为不断减弱人力资本对农业生产起作用的途径和不利影响程度而努力。
[Abstract]:With China's social and economic development and the implementation of family planning policy, the birth rate continues to decline, the average life expectancy of the population continues to increase, which makes China's population age structure changes rapidly, the population aging phenomenon. By 2010, China's aging population over the age of 60 accounted for China's total population of 13.26%. in China in rural areas, large-scale young rural labor transfer to the city, the degree of population aging in rural areas than in the city more serious. Significant changes in rural population structure also brings the age structure of the agricultural labor force changed significantly, the average age of agricultural labor force increasing year by year, and the aging labor force account for a large proportion. This phenomenon, many scholars said worrying, they think the aging population on the one hand, physiological function decline, its strength is not equal to the heavy agricultural labor; on the other hand The low education level and rigid ideology of old people are not conducive to the popularization and adoption of new agricultural technology, which will affect the production of Chinese agriculture and even cause food security problems.
But studies have shown that: on the one hand, in the field production, the external constraints of small-scale farmers in our agricultural production conditions or market conditions and the performance of the collective decision-making (i.e. farmers planting decision and people around the planting decision with general similarity) in the form of land. The small herd of small farmers take decisions will be a kind of rational choice. The field of agricultural production technology (including production technology involved in the whole process of easy imitation), does not require managers with particularly high decision-making ability, simple imitation will greatly reduce the operator of human capital demand; on the other hand, in recent years, agriculture machinery has been considerable development in our in China, most of the links of agricultural production or all links has realized mechanization. Mechanization of agricultural production processes instead of the operator's manual labor, not only makes the agricultural production The total labor input has been reduced, and the labor intensity of operators has also been reduced. First, developing mechanized production links is generally a production link requiring higher labor intensity for operators, which will greatly reduce the requirements of agricultural producers for physical strength of operators.
With more and more agricultural production mechanization, and in the actual agricultural production, small-scale farmers in our country take the form of collective decision-making to a certain extent, the requirements for workers physical and human capital in agricultural production is not so strict. So, the old age labor's physical decline and low human capital or agricultural production the serious restriction factor? Because of the comprehensive machinery degree of planting crops, and crop production technology can imitate different, then aging labor force effects on different crops are the same? Reflected in crops, the impact of aging on different levels of crop production may be what the boundary? The theoretical analysis and Empirical Study on agricultural production behavior of these problems this article on the elderly farmers and young farmers, and the two types of farmers in agricultural production. The degree of collective decision-making in the practice and the degree of labor substitution are interviewed. The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:
Research content 1: the influence of aging on Farmers' planting decision
This part mainly inspects the aging labor force and young labor decision-making behaviors in different growing farmers. If there is no difference between the two types of farmers in crop planting behavior, it shows that the effects of collective decision-making form of existing production link crop mechanization and agricultural production to offset the decline in physical strength and low aging labor force of human capital decision on Farmers' planting, aging does not affect the farmers of the crop planting decision. On the contrary, that the existing agricultural production crop mechanization and agricultural production of the collective decision form is not enough to offset the decline in physical aging labor force and low human capital planting decision in the role of farmers, aging the impact on Farmers' crops planting decision.
The verification of the content can be divided into the following two sub contents to verify:
Sub content 1: the influence of aging on Farmers' planting area decision
The first part is based on the comprehensive operation level of agricultural machinery are divided into two kinds of crops, the differences were compared with young aged farmers farmers in different crops in the planting area of decision-making behavior, to illustrate the influence of aging on the farmers planting area is produced. The results show that the high degree of mechanization of field crops. Such as wheat, corn and soybeans, there is no difference between the farmers and farmers aged young planting area, and in the degree of mechanization is not too high or some large labor intensity link without mechanization in crops, such as rice and cotton crops two, aging farmers and agricultural young planting area showed some differences, aging farmers will tend to to reduce the crop acreage.
Sub content two: the influence of aging on the investment decision of the main elements of farmers
The concrete research content as compared with young aged farmers farmers in the two categories of crops (crops such as a sub division standard, the same below) of chemical fertilizer, pesticide, the existence of machinery and labor quantity difference. In the main elements of crops, of fertilizer and pesticide usage, use time and use types decision making reflects the operators relatively high human capital requirements. On crop machinery inputs and labor labor quantity decision of executive human capital requirements are relatively low. The results show that, under the existing conditions of agricultural production, labor and aging young labour did not show differences in crop inputs. This shows that whether the crops mechanization level, regardless of input factors on the level of executive human capital requirements, aging farmers in the main factors of crop input than younger farmers.
Research content two: the effect of aging on the outcome of crop planting decision making (single yield)
Study on the content of the second step is the empirical agricultural production process, after verification is a continuation of the planting decision of the farmers, according to the two part of the final impact of aging on the existence of planting industry. This part is the study of aging labor force and young labor is in on crop planting decision results are different, crop yield is crop yield is significant difference in aging labor force in the young labor force engaged in. If there is no significant difference between them, indicates that in the crop planting decision under the condition of the same aged farmers planting decision on the effect and implementation of young farmers have no difference. And vice versa. The empirical results show that both in the degree of mechanization the crops with high or low degree of mechanization of crop yield, there was no significant difference between the two types of farmers. The farmers type and amount of labor Investigation of interaction found two categories of farm labor efficiency in most crops and there is no significant difference, but in the corn and soybean crop in two, aged farmers labor efficiency is lower than that of the young farmers' labor efficiency, this may be due to large-scale land management in Northeast farmers mostly rely on its own production machinery rather than employ machinery.
Research content three: in practical agricultural production practice, the form of farmers' collective decision-making and the degree of substitution of machinery to labor.
The two part is the main content of the empirical test whether there are differences in crop production behavior of farmers and young elderly farmers, this part is the case of physical and human capital mechanism for operators is influenced in agricultural production practice. This part of research through in-depth interviews, focus on understanding how the farmers make the planting decision? And agricultural production in which production realized mechanization? To fully examine the extent and mechanism of collective decision-making in agricultural production. The degree of substitution of labor through interviews found that although farmers scattered, household scale is very small, but the village people, informal cooperation or professional cooperation organization the form, homogeneity of farmers production decision and production technology is very high. Farmers use agricultural "outsourcing" service is also very high level, agricultural production The production link with large labor intensity has basically realized mechanization, and the old people with small labor intensity can be fully competent.
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