成都市水资源约束下的人口承载力研究

发布时间：2018-03-08 06:26

本文选题：人口承载力　切入点：水资源　出处：《四川社会科学院》2010年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 成都市自实行城乡一体化和城乡统筹以来,工业化和城市化进程加快,城市规模不断扩张,截止到2009年末,全市户籍人口数已达到1139.6万人,城市人口规模快速扩大给城市资源带来了极大的压力。2008年“汶川大地震”、2009年以来全国范围的旱灾使得成都郊区的生态环境遭到破坏,成都的生态环境发生转折性变化,环境承载能力急剧降低。在现代城市中,水资源是一个区域人口、生态、环境、经济社会协调可持续发展的基础。城市人口的日常生活、生产、城市经济工业的发展离不开水。一定时期、地域和经济发展水平条件下,一定的水资源只能承载一定的人口容量。现阶段成都水资源短缺问题日益严重,水资源供需平衡问题已成为制约城市人口增长、规模扩张的一个重要瓶颈。千万人口的成都市面临着水资源短缺和日益增长的水资源需求的双重压力。未来成都市的水资源能支撑多大规模的人口成为现实的课题。本文从成都市水资源的供给和用水现状分析出发,从成都市全市水资源和市区生活用水量为切入点分别两个建立水资源约束下的人口承载力模型,并对相关的指标进行预测和比较。最终结果显示成都市水资源约束下的人口承载规模为1245.9-1568.1万人之间。测算数值仅高于人口自回归的200万余人, 2020年成都市水资源对人口的承载空间十分有限。最后笔者在社会经济(人口)-水资源-生态耦合系统下提出要继续实行人口计划生育政策,合理引导人口的有序流动,调整产业结构和实现产业结构升级,降低经济增长对水资源的依赖程度。多渠道开发水源和提高水资源的利用效率,加强水资源管理法制建设及执法能力建设,做好成都市污水处理和回用的规划,加强宣传,提倡节约用水和科学用水。
[Abstract]:Since the implementation of urban-rural integration and urban-rural planning, the process of industrialization and urbanization has been accelerated, and the scale of the city has been continuously expanding. By end of 2009, the number of residents in the city had reached eleven million three hundred and ninety-six thousand. The rapid expansion of urban population has brought great pressure to urban resources. The "Wenchuan earthquake" on 2008, the nationwide drought since 2009, has destroyed the ecological environment in the suburbs of Chengdu, and the ecological environment of Chengdu has undergone watershed changes. In modern cities, water resources are the basis for the coordinated and sustainable development of a region's population, ecology, environment, economy and society. Urban economic and industrial development can not be separated from water. Under certain conditions of regional and economic development, a certain amount of water resources can only carry a certain population capacity. At present, the shortage of water resources in Chengdu is becoming increasingly serious. The balance between supply and demand of water resources has become a constraint on urban population growth. Chengdu, with a population of ten million, is facing the double pressure of water shortage and increasing demand for water resources. In the future, the water resources of Chengdu can support the question of how large a population becomes a reality. Based on the analysis of the water supply and water use in Chengdu, this paper sets up the population carrying capacity model under the restriction of water resources respectively from the water resources and the daily water consumption in Chengdu. The final results show that the population bearing capacity under the restriction of water resources in Chengdu is between 1245.9-1568.1 million people. The calculated value is only higher than that of more than 2 million people who are autoregressive. In 2020, the water resources of Chengdu were only higher than that of more than 2 million people. The space for carrying population is very limited. Finally, under the system of social economy (population, water resources and ecological coupling), the author proposes to continue carrying out population family planning policy. We should rationally guide the orderly flow of population, adjust the industrial structure and upgrade the industrial structure, reduce the degree of dependence of economic growth on water resources, develop water sources through multiple channels and improve the efficiency of water resources utilization. We should strengthen the legal construction of water resources management and law enforcement, make a good plan for the treatment and reuse of sewage in Chengdu, strengthen propaganda, and advocate water conservation and scientific water use.
【学位授予单位】：四川社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C922

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