河南省人口老龄化对人力资源影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-15 22:07

本文选题：老龄化　切入点：人力资源　出处：《郑州大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着人口老龄化的不断加剧,人口老龄化已经成为当前社会关注的热点,由此引发了一系列问题,如人力资源开发与利用、延迟退休、养老保险和养老基金等各种经济和社会问题。为了缓解老龄化带来的影响,国家近几年连续多次更改人口政策,但是老龄化对社会的影响不是一朝一夕就能解决,不仅要从人口数量上解决老龄化,更应该关注人口质量,双管齐下,缓解老龄化对社会带来的压力。文章在借鉴国内外学者对老龄化研究的基础上,分析河南省的人口老龄化对人力资源的影响。研究主要分为3个方面,首先,根据PDE模型对河南省的未来人口进行预测,可以看到,随着老龄化的程度不断加深,以及二胎政策的落实,河南省的人口将在2035年左右达到最大,此时,河南省的人口结构也将呈现倒金字塔形,说明河南省的人口老龄化越来越严重,但是随着二胎政策的逐步实施,河南省的老龄化得到一定程度的缓解。其次,研究老龄化对人力资源数量的影响,人力资源数量主要从人口数量、适龄劳动人口数量、劳动参与率三个方面描述。当新生儿的出生数量小于年龄当年步入老龄化的人口数量时,那么老龄化就将不断加重,适龄劳动人口减少,这些结论在人口预测中都得到了证明,所以在研究人口老龄化对人力资源数量方面的实证分析中,主要研究老龄化对劳动参与率的影响,发现老龄化对降低劳动参与率成显著影响。最后,研究老龄化对人力资源质量的影响,人力资源的质量是指人力资源所具有的体力、智力、知识和技能水平,以及劳动者的劳动态度。通过对文献的研究,发现人力资源质量往往可以用健康卫生指标、教育状况、劳动态度指标来衡量。文章从两方面研究老龄化对人力资源质量的影响,一是老龄化对劳动者的教育状况和身体状况的影响,二是老龄化对人力资本的影响。在老龄化对人力资本影响分析中,主要考虑老龄化对教育状况的影响,对河南省的教育现状分析,发现河南省的政府教育支出占GDP的规模很小,政府对于教育方面的投入不足以满足当前社会的需求。通过模型验证了人口老龄化对教育指出的影响,发现河南省的人口老龄化对于教育指出的影响是正面的,即老龄化有利于家庭教育支出。总体而言,河南省实施了全面二胎政策,但是老龄化还是在不断地加重,直到2035年之后,老年人口占比才稳定在20%左右。在当前的老龄化水平下,老龄化对人力资源数量的影响是负面的,对人力资源质量方面的影响是正面的。
[Abstract]:With the increasing aging of the population, the aging of the population has become the focus of social attention, which has caused a series of problems, such as the development and utilization of human resources, the delay of retirement, Pension insurance and pension funds and other economic and social problems. In order to alleviate the impact of ageing, the country has changed its population policy several times in recent years, but the impact of ageing on society cannot be solved overnight. It is necessary not only to solve the problem of aging in terms of population quantity, but also to pay attention to the quality of population. This paper analyzes the impact of population aging on human resources in Henan Province. The study is mainly divided into three aspects. Firstly, according to the prediction of the future population of Henan Province based on PDE model, it can be seen that with the deepening of the degree of aging, With the implementation of the two-child policy, the population of Henan Province will reach its largest in 2035. At this time, the population structure of Henan Province will also present an inverted pyramid, indicating that the population aging in Henan Province is getting more and more serious. However, with the gradual implementation of the two-child policy, the aging of Henan Province has been alleviated to a certain extent. Secondly, the impact of aging on the number of human resources is studied. The number of human resources is mainly from the number of population, the number of working-age workers. When the number of births of newborns is smaller than the number of people aging in the year of age, then aging will continue to increase and the number of working-age workers will decrease. These conclusions have been proved in the population projections. Therefore, in the empirical analysis of the population aging on the human resources quantity, we mainly study the effect of aging on the labor force participation rate, and find that the aging has a significant effect on reducing the labor force participation rate. Finally, To study the effect of aging on the quality of human resources, which refers to the physical, intellectual, knowledge and skill levels of human resources, as well as the labor attitude of workers. It is found that the quality of human resources can be measured by health and health indicators, educational status, and labor attitude indicators. This paper studies the impact of aging on human resource quality from two aspects. One is the influence of aging on the education and physical condition of workers, the other is the influence of aging on human capital. In the analysis of the influence of aging on human capital, the main consideration is the influence of aging on education. By analyzing the present situation of education in Henan Province, it is found that the scale of government education expenditure in Henan Province is very small, and the government investment in education is not enough to meet the needs of the current society. It is found that the effect of population aging on education in Henan Province is positive, that is, aging is beneficial to family education expenditure. In general, Henan Province has implemented a comprehensive two-child policy, but the aging is still getting worse. Until 2035, the proportion of the elderly population was stable at about 20%. Under the current aging level, the impact of aging on the quantity of human resources is negative, and the impact on the quality of human resources is positive.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2;F249.21

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