贵州省老龄化背景下老年人力资源开发与利用研究

发布时间：2018-03-17 03:35

本文选题：老年人　切入点：老年人力资源劳动力　出处：《贵州财经大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：“老龄化”的产生来源于两个方面：一是出生率的降低：二是死亡率的下降。贵州省于2003年步入老龄化社会。对于贵州省而言，近五年的出生率平均为13．67％c，，死亡率保持在6．66％0上下。相对于90年代22．3‰的出生率与7．96‰的死TL=率，两者都有明显的大幅下降。以贵州省2010年常住人口3479万人计算，不存在迁移情况下，每年人口增长24．36万人。60岁及以上人口占总人口的比重逐年上升，山1990年的7．1％上升到2000年9．4％，发展的速度很快。随之而来，如何保障老年人的晚年生活的问题丞待解决。 2009年全省劳动力人口数量虽然达到2339．7万以上，与此同时就业人口规模达到2322．46万人。劳动力人口目前虽然没有显现规模下降的趋势，但是总抚养比上升使得劳动力人口的社会压力增大。老龄化的趋势已经是再明显不过了，由于出生人口的减少，不论时间的长短，劳动力总是会出现短缺的情况。老年人力资源开发成为缓解劳动力以及劳动力人口扰养压力的可取途径。本文主要分为老龄化理论部分、贵州省老年人口现状、人口结构变动预测、老年人力资源开发与利用可行性研究四个部分。本文采用贵州省第四次和第五次人口普查资料、贵州省2005年人口1％抽样调查数据、贵州省统计年鉴和贵州省60年数据。运用第四次和第五次人口普查资料，以贵州省目前人口现状为基，采用多区域离散人口模型埘贵州省分年龄、性别人口预测，得到高、中、低t办案分年龄、性别人¨数量。同时，根据因内生产总值发展趋势设定发展方案预测劳动力缺口，并以目前老年人口的就业和健康水平为标准，计算LH能够再就业的老年人口数量，作为老年人力资源数量。主要研究结果：2014～2022年间，劳动力人口规模将达到峰值，总人口将达到2500万至2560万之间，，之后将逐渐减少。2035年～2045年间劳动力人口会持续十年较稳定，为2100万～2200万。2045年之后将会进入持续的人口减少期，劳动力人将会大幅减少。老龄人口将在2060年左右到达峰值，约1570万人，规模相当于目前全省人口的44％。2010年贵州省80岁及以上人口总数为52万人，2015年预测增加至77．6万，2020年预计增加到111．7万人，而到2050年时预计为430．2万人，相当于2010年时的8倍之多，不论是增长速度还是数量都相当惊人。根掘预测结果，老年人口数将最终于2l[)(]年左右稳定，届时，人口结构将会严重老龄化甚至为严重高龄化结构。2015年将出现50万的劳动力缺口，在2040年前后，劳动力需求会大于60岁及以上老年人口总量。劳动力缺口的出现是社会发展的必然，防患于未然，在劳动力缺口没有造成社会经济发展影响之前，需找到解决之方。一是科技的迅速发展，使得劳动生产率大大提高，从而降低劳动力需求，这种情况下也可能还是有劳动力缺口的存在；二是，在科技进步使得劳动生产率提高，但是仍存在劳动力缺口的情况时老年人力资源开发与利用便是最现实与最经济的路径。以2020年为例，老年人力资源能够提供的再就业人数为123．14万人，而劳动力缺口三种方案预计分别需要225万、147万与90．4万人，尚不能完全满足经济高速发展的要求，但是可以大大的缓解就业需求的压力。
[Abstract]:The "source of aging" from two aspects: one is to reduce the birth rate: two mortality rate is decreased. The aging society in Guizhou province in 2003. In Guizhou Province, nearly five years the average birth rate is 13.67%c, mortality rate was maintained on 6.66%0. Compared with the birth rate of 22.3 per thousand in 90s the death rate of TL=% and 7.96, both significantly decreased significantly. In Guizhou Province, in 2010 the resident population of 34 million 790 thousand people, there is no migration, the annual population growth of 243 thousand and 600.60 years old and above population proportion of the total population increased year by year, hill rose from 7.1% in 1990 to 9.4% in 2000, the development speed is very fast. In the same time, how to protect the elderly problems to be solved.
The number of the province in 2009 although the labor population reached more than 23 million 397 thousand, while employment population reached 23 million 224 thousand and 600. Although the labor force did not show the scale of the downward trend, but the increase in the total dependency ratio makes the labor force the social pressure increases. The trend of aging is more obvious, due to the reduction of birth population, regardless of the length of time. There will always be a shortage of labor. The development of elderly human resource has become the proper way of labor and labor force relief support pressure.
This paper is mainly divided into aging theory, present situation of aged population in Guizhou, forecast the changes of population structure, the four part of the development of elderly human resource and utilization feasibility study in Guizhou province. This paper uses the fourth and the fifth census data, Guizhou Province in 2005 1% population sample survey data, data statistical yearbook of Guizhou province and Guizhou province for 60 years. The fourth and the fifth census data, the current population situation in Guizhou Province as the base, using the multi regional discrete population model in Guizhou Province on age, gender, population prediction, high, low, t handling age, number of people ". At the same time, according to the development trend of GDP for setting the development plan forecast labor the gap, and in the current elderly population employment and health standards, can calculate LH number of the elderly population re employment, as the number of elderly human resources.
The main research results: 2014~2022 years, labor population will reach a peak between the total population will reach 25 million to 25 million 600 thousand, after.2035 years will be gradually reduced to 2045 years of labor population lasts ten years is relatively stable, reduce the period of 21 million ~ 22 million.2045 years will enter the continuous population, labor people will significantly reduce the aging population. Will reach a peak around 2060, about 15 million 700 thousand people, equivalent to the size of the province's population of 44%.2010 in Guizhou Province, the population aged 80 and over a total of 520 thousand people, 2015 increased to 776 thousand in 2020 is expected to increase to 1 million 117 thousand, and by 2050 is expected to 4 million 302 thousand, equivalent to 8 times in 2010 when many whether the growth rate or quantity are quite amazing. According to the prediction results, the elderly population will eventually (2l[)] years stable, then, will be a serious old population structure At the age of.2015 years or even the structure will appear 500 thousand serious shortage of workers in the elderly, before and after 2040, the labor demand will be greater than the total population aged 60 and above. The labor gap is the inevitable result of social development, nip in the bud, before the development of social economy influence did not result in the labor gap, to find a solution to the party. One is the rapid development of science and technology, which greatly improve labor productivity, reduce labor demand, this situation may still have labor gap; two, the productivity in the progress of science and technology, but there are still labor gap when the old human resources development and utilization is the most realistic and the most economical the path. For example in 2020, re employment of the elderly human resources to provide for 1 million 231 thousand and 400 people, and the labor gap three schemes were projected to 2 million 250 thousand, 1 million 470 thousand and 904 thousand people can not fully meet the requirements of rapid economic development, but can greatly alleviate the pressure on employment demand.

【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F249.27;C924.24

【参考文献】